Euro remains under selling pressure against British Pound on France's political turmoil

The EUR/GBP cross declines to around 0.8420 during the early European trading hours on Monday. Violent protests in France put pressure on the Euro (EUR) against the British Pound (GBP). European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Frank Elderson is set to speak later in the day.

Reuters reported that French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the “shocking” violence that occurred during protests over the rising cost of living in a televised national address on Sunday, following one of France’s most severe days of unrest in recent years. France had the broadest of a series of demonstrations that took place across Europe, with Belgium, Italy and Portugal also affected.

"The weekend unrest matters for the euro mainly through French bonds rather than directly," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets in London.

Traders brace for the UK jobs data on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report on Wednesday. These readings are likely to help seal the deal on the first rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE) in over three years in November.

“We expect a 25-basis-point hike at the central bank’s next meeting in November. We also see another move in February,” said Bloomberg Economics chief UK economist Dan Hanson.

The UK Unemployment Rate is projected to tick up to 5.0% (3M) in August from 4.9% in the previous reading. Additionally, the headline CPI is expected to show a rise of 3.4% YoY in September, while the core CPI is forecast to show an increase of 2.7% YoY during the same period.

ECB weighs risks of falling behind the curve versus overtightening

Analysts at Rabobank note that recent commentary from ECB policymaker Wunsh underscores the central bank’s delicate balancing act. They highlight that Wunsh “confirmed that the recent rise in longer-dated yields does not necessarily prevent some further rate hikes,” suggesting that higher market rates alone will not automatically stay the ECB’s hand. At the same time, Rabobank warns that allowing inflation pressures to build unchecked “would mean the central bank has fallen behind the curve, and policymakers will be wary of making a similar mistake as the previous energy shock.” However, they caution that “acting more forcefully before such evidence materializes would meaningfully increase the risk that the ECB errs on the side of too tight monetary policy,” leaving officials to carefully judge how far additional tightening can be justified.

Bailey frustration on inflation keeps GBP supported but cautious

FXS Speechtracker scores this speech at 6.2/10, slightly below Governor Bailey’s historic 6.4/10, pointing to a marginally softer tone despite clear frustration with above-target UK inflation. Emphasis that second-round effects are still “too early” to judge, and currently “subdued” with businesses focused on cost-cutting, leans mildly dovish at the margin by downplaying an imminent wage-price spiral, which can cap aggressive GBP upside.

At the same time, comments that the UK economy is “more resilient than we expected, not as strong as we need” keep the door open to maintaining restrictive policy for longer, limiting downside for GBP. The remark that news from the Middle East is the biggest factor moving UK gilt yields underscores that near-term GBP moves may be driven more by global risk and rates dynamics than by a clear new policy signal from the Bank of England.

Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP retains a negative bias amid oversold condition

In the daily chart, EUR/GBP holds a clear bearish bias as spot remains decisively under the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and below the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle line. The pair is drifting toward the lower Bollinger Band, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 22 sits deep in oversold territory, hinting that downside pressure persists but that fresh selling may start to look stretched at these levels.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day SMA around 0.8505, with the 100-day SMA at 0.8565 reinforcing a broader supply zone ahead of a stronger cap near the upper band at 0.8630. On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band at 0.8385 offers the first significant support, and a sustained break below this area would open the door to an extension of the current downtrend.