Spot gold: trading within a range, sell on highs, buy on lows

(1) Analysis: In the US, September CPI surged to 3.7% and core CPI rose to 2.6%, both exceeding expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October soared from 22% to 31.6%. CTA trend funds conducted large-scale selling, leading to a continuous decline in gold prices. However, there is strong buying interest for allocation in the $4,000 to $4,100 region, with central banks consistently increasing their holdings and ETFs seeing record inflows, collectively building a bottom support. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains at a high level, which is unfavorable for gold prices to strengthen in the short term, so it is advisable to wait for stabilization. (2) Key focuses: US Treasury yields, US Dollar Index, geopolitical situation. (3) Resistance: 4200, 4230, 4260. (4) Support: 4100, 4080, 4050.