European gas prices rise amid weather and supply risks

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智通财经2026/11/09 10:04

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On Monday morning, Dutch and UK benchmark wholesale natural gas prices rose as expectations of cold weather pushed up heating demand.
According to Intercontinental Exchange data, the Dutch TTF front-month contract edged up by €0.9 to €86.50 per megawatt-hour.
The UK front-month contract increased by about 3 pence to 215.00 pence per therm.
Institutional analyst Yuriy Onyshkiv stated that there are mixed signals: Statements related to Trump’s tariff comments have reduced geopolitical risk, but shipping near the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and supply risks remain high.
The Khor Mor gas field in Iraq's Kurdish region ceased production on Sunday due to a suspected drone attack; this is one of the region’s main gas fields.
Institutional data shows that colder weather in the second half of this week is expected to boost heating demand, while gas demand for power generation from the weekend to next week may fall, partially offsetting the increase in residential gas usage.
Norwegian exports are stable and Northwest European LNG outflows are expected to increase compared to last Friday due to rising nominations at France’s Montoir terminal.
Consulting firm Energy Aspects raised its forecast for the TTF December average price to €107 per megawatt-hour, and for the first quarter to €102 per megawatt-hour.
The firm said that from October to November, the weekly forecast for Europe’s natural gas demand rose by about 110 million cubic meters, and the number of heating degree days in Northwest Europe over the next week will be higher than the 10-year average.
The firm added that limited LNG supply and low early-winter inventories are putting further pressure on an already tight spot market.
The benchmark contract in the European carbon market rose by €0.33 to €86.88 per ton.

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European gas prices rise amid weather and supply risks

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