Romanian Leu: Rating relief but NBR stays cautious – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says Romania’s unchanged Baa3 rating at Moody’s and prior Fitch decision should ease pressure after recent ROMGBs underperformance. He expects the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to keep rates at 6.50%, sees the first cut only in January 2027, and anticipates limited EUR/RON moves near 5.25 despite some scope for a short-term Romanian Leu (RON) rally.

Stable rating, delayed easing outlook

"Moody’s kept Romania’s rating at Baa3 with a negative outlook, following Fitch’s unchanged decision a week earlier. This should offer some relief after ROMGBs sold off by around 15bp at the long end last week, even as the rest of the region rallied."

"Today, the National Bank of Romania is expected to keep rates unchanged at 6.50%, and we see little reason for a shift in tone versus previous meetings, with our forecast still pointing to the first rate cut only in January 2027."

"EUR/RON remains anchored just below 5.25, and we expect limited movement given the NBR’s lack of room to tolerate additional inflation pressure. However, relief over the unchanged rating could support a RON rally today as buyers and carry trades return to the market."