Prominent crypto trader DonAlt, who accurately predicted XRP's 700% rally in 2024–2025, has returned with a technical analysis of the Bitcoin chart for mid-summer 2026. According to his assessment, the leading cryptocurrency has reached a turning point in its medium-term cycle, and its next move depends entirely on buyers' ability to defend a key support level.
Bitcoin is currently trading within the $62,500–$63,500 range, showing a local recovery impulse after the prolonged June decline. Nevertheless, DonAlt is urging market participants not to focus on short-term intraday fluctuations, but instead to pay attention exclusively to the monthly candle close, with the $61,000 threshold now acting as the main dividing line for the trend.
What a Drop Below $61,000 Means for BTC and XRP
The technical picture on the chart divides the end of July into two possible outcomes:
- Bullish case: A monthly close above $61,000 would confirm buyers' strength. A July close above this level — and the higher the better — would demonstrate that the market structure remains bullish and that the current accumulation phase could become the foundation for a new full-scale uptrend.
- Bearish case: A close at or below $61,000 would mean that the current price recovery should be classified as a "pity bounce" — a temporary corrective move before another wave of selling. Under this scenario, investors should prepare for a decline toward the next major strategic support zone near $45,000, which is clearly visible in Bitcoin's trading history.
For XRP and the broader altcoin market, this verdict is no less important. Historically, major XRP moves have often occurred when Bitcoin was either stabilizing or rising confidently.
Bitcoin price outlook by DonAlt, Source:
DonAlt via X
If BTC manages to hold above the $61,000 line and enters a consolidation phase, this could free up liquidity and create conditions for a local altcoin rally. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls toward $45,000, the prolonged decline of the market leader would drag XRP lower as well, erasing the token's attempts to consolidate near its local highs.
Another market trigger at the end of the month will be the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting scheduled for July 28–29. The regulator's interest-rate decision and Jerome Powell's subsequent remarks will traditionally set the direction for all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin buyers need to defend the $61,000 level until the meeting outcome is announced in order to avoid a deeper correction in August.
