U.S. Stock Market Preview | Major Index Futures Mixed; Nvidia Plunges Pre-market; Fed Officials' Speeches Incoming

Pre-market Market Movements

1. As of Thursday, November 12, before the U.S. market open, U.S. stock index futures showed mixed movement. At the time of publication, Dow futures were up 0.07%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.76%.

2. At the time of publication, the German DAX index was up 0.82%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.35%, the French CAC40 index was up 0.73%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was up 0.28%.

3. At the time of publication, WTI crude oil was down 0.81%, at $85.83/barrel. Brent crude was down 0.71%, at $92.10/barrel.

Market News

Deutsche Bank turns even more hawkish! The Fed may hike rates for three consecutive meetings, no more pause in January next year. After the U.S. October inflation data exceeded expectations, Deutsche Bank quickly shifted to a more hawkish policy forecast, expecting the Federal Reserve to raise rates at each of the next three meetings, changing its previous prediction of a pause in January. Previously, Deutsche Bank expected the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points each in December and March, pausing in January. The latest forecast now includes a rate hike in January as part of the baseline scenario, projecting the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in December, January, and March. This means the federal funds rate target range would rise from the current 3.75%—4.00% to 4.50%—4.75%. Before the inflation data release, Fed Board Member Waller said that if price pressures accelerate further, the Fed should consider a 50 basis point rate hike in December instead of the usual 25 basis points. Deutsche Bank believes Waller’s remarks have opened the space for discussion of larger rate hikes. The bank does not rule out the possibility of a one-time 50 basis point hike in December, though they emphasize this is not their base case.

Nvidia’s “black swan” shakes AI conviction! Jensen Huang’s controversy brings Treasuries buyers; long-term U.S. Treasuries buck the trend and rise. The turmoil at Nvidia has raised doubts about the AI trade narrative, triggering safe-haven buying in U.S. Treasuries. As the cornerstone of the AI market theme, any negative shock to the chip giant may undermine confidence beyond just the company itself. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield declined by 2 basis points to 5.34%, ahead of a long-term Treasury auction on Thursday; the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped then stabilized at 4.99%. Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Carol Kong said, “The string of news around Jensen Huang has further shaken market confidence in the AI narrative, driving mild safe-haven interest in U.S. Treasuries. Nvidia is critical to the AI investment craze and even the global economy. Without doubt, all market participants are closely watching how things develop.”

Signs of easing tensions in the Middle East? Reports say Vance is considering face-to-face talks with Iran’s security officials. According to reports, U.S. Vice President Vance is considering a face-to-face meeting with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei to push for an end to hostilities. President Trump remains open to the idea. Quoting U.S. and Middle Eastern officials, the report says Trump has told senior staff and relevant parties in recent days that he is open to Vance resuming U.S.-Iran negotiations and has authorized him to undertake the talks. U.S. officials emphasized that discussions about Vance directly meeting with Iranian officials are “still in very early stages” and no specific date has been set. However, both countries are exploring possible arrangements via mediators. According to insiders, if the meeting goes ahead, the next phase of negotiations may take place in Doha, Qatar.

Are oil prices no longer a key factor? The toughest part of U.S. inflation may no longer be energy-related. As the oil price-U.S. Treasury yield correlation, formed after the outbreak of the Iran conflict, has broken down, investors are facing a new market reality: even if the war ends and energy prices normalize, U.S. inflation may not cool significantly, and Fed tightening pressure may persist. For much of 2026, Wall Street generally believes that rising oil prices will push inflation expectations higher, sending Treasury yields higher too. Rising energy costs push up consumer prices directly and may force the Fed to keep rates elevated for longer. As a result, investors may dump treasuries or demand higher yields to compensate for the risk. This trading logic has recently shifted. This week, international oil prices fell to more than two-month lows. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields have climbed sharply, as recent economic data could prompt the Fed to take more aggressive tightening action. This means that even if oil prices continue to fall, as long as the U.S. economy remains robust, inflation pressure may still push Treasury yields higher.

Individual Stock News

CoreWeave ignites AI hype; can Nebius (NBIS.US) defend the AI compute rally with explosive results? In recent years, European tech leader Nebius, now focusing on cloud-based AI computing resources, finds itself in the spotlight as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang faces renewed negative news and Nvidia’s post-market plunge has triggered a broad sell-off across the AI computing value chain. Going forward, Nebius urgently needs to prove that rising computing prices can be matched by outperformance in capacity delivery and capital arriving faster than expected, ensuring that CoreWeave's strong results and the Anthropic IPO roadshow continue to fuel new waves of AI computing enthusiasm. Nebius Group will release its earnings report and forward guidance before the U.S. market opens on November 12, Beijing time.

Corporate governance turmoil escalates! Nvidia (NVDA.US) shares plummet pre-market. As of pre-market trading on Thursday, Nvidia shares were down nearly 7%. Just three days after admitting to an extramarital affair on November 8, Jensen Huang was revealed to have had a second relationship with another Nvidia vice president who reported directly to him. Meanwhile, media reports, citing insiders, say Nvidia’s board is moving fast to prepare for Huang’s potential ouster, with a board meeting possibly scheduled as soon as November 12 and executive recruitment firms enlisted to help find a replacement. There is consideration of appointing an interim CEO for the transition. Some commentators believe Nvidia may weather the storm, but the process will be extremely difficult, and the likelihood of Huang being removed as CEO is very high. According to the prediction market Polymarket, bets on Huang leaving or being ousted have surged. With Nvidia set to release its third-quarter results next week, “key personnel risk” is now a major concern for investors.

Memory chip and optical communication stocks generally fall pre-market. In Thursday pre-market trading, SK Hynix (SKHY.US) was down nearly 4%; SanDisk (SNDK.US) and Micron Technology (MU.US) fell more than 3%; Seagate Technology (STX.US) and Western Digital (WDC.US) dropped more than 2%; Coherent (COHR.US) was down more than 4%; Astera Labs (ALAB.US), Credo Technology (CRDO.US), and Lumentum (LITE.US) were all down more than 3%; and Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) fell more than 2%.

Musk: 100 gigawatts in space beats 800 gigawatts on Earth, SpaceX (SPCX.US) wants to build “space compute” after Starship. On Wednesday, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk rebutted the notion of comparing ground-based solar with orbital solar, as the company ramps up efforts to send data centers into space. Musk posted on X that “100 gigawatts in space is about equivalent to 800 gigawatts on Earth,” adding that terrestrial solar “must be paired with massive batteries to power compute at night and supplemented with combustion or nuclear power in winter,” concluding that the two are “completely different.” Musk has previously stated that, eventually, space-based data centers will surpass terrestrial infrastructure. SpaceX has applied to the FCC for permission to operate up to one million Starmind satellites, with the first launches expected in the second half of next year.

Alphabet (GOOGL.US) launches HKD and SGD bond roadshows, testing investor confidence amid AI market volatility. Alphabet has started roadshows for its first-ever HKD- and SGD-denominated bond offerings, aiming to gauge investor demand as market volatility increases for AI-focused companies. According to an insider, Alphabet set initial price guidance for the planned 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year HKD bonds at about 4.6%, 5%, and 5.5%, respectively. The source added the company is also marketing 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year SGD bonds, with initial price guidance at around 2.75%, 3.25%, 3.65%, and 4%. Earlier reports indicated that Alphabet plans to issue the equivalent of $1–1.5 billion in HKD bonds and about $1.5 billion in SGD bonds.

CoreWeave (CRWV.US) plans at least $4 billion fundraising after raising revenue guidance: AI compute supplier targets a “junk-to-investment grade” credit leap. After raising its annual sales forecast and easing investor concerns about its highly leveraged business model, CoreWeave plans to raise at least $4 billion via investment-grade loans. According to sources, Morgan Stanley and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) are leading this potential deal, which will be syndicated to lenders in stages. Previously rated as “junk,” the company has relied heavily on high-yield bonds to finance data center expansion, but it secured lower borrowing costs by pledging chips and related contracts as collateral—a structure expected to continue for this funding. Based on preliminary discussions, the new loan may carry a yield of 7–7.5%—a figure revealed by the company in Tuesday’s earnings call with analysts and roughly half the yield on its outstanding junk bonds.

Key Economic Data and Events Preview

21:30 Beijing time: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 7

21:30 Beijing time: 2026 FOMC voting member, Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks

23:00 Beijing time: Fed Board Member Barr speaks on AI and inequality

00:30 Beijing time (next day): 2027 FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks

02:10 Beijing time (next day): 2027 FOMC voting member, San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks

02:30 Beijing time (next day): 2028 FOMC voting member, Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks

07:30 Beijing time (next day): Permanent FOMC voting member, New York Fed President Williams speaks

Earnings Preview

Friday morning: Cisco (CSCO.US), Applied Materials (AMAT.US), Cerebras Systems (CBRS.US)