Progress in US-Iran negotiations boosts shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; UK natural gas prices fall to 97 pence, nearing a more than two-month low

⑴ UK natural gas prices have fallen to around 97 pence per therm, approaching their lowest level in over two months, as signs of normalization in shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz emerged following progress in peace talks between the US and Iran. Earlier this week, three stranded very large crude carriers successfully passed through the waterway, and in recent weeks, several empty Qatari LNG vessels have entered the Gulf region for reloads—indicating that natural gas transport could resume. ⑵ In addition, Qatar's Prime Minister stated that, except for damaged facilities, LNG production is expected to return to normal within weeks. The prospect of resuming LNG flows in the Gulf region has alleviated supply shortage concerns and may help Europe replenish inventories ahead of next winter. ⑶ These developments offset the support from strong power sector demand amid hot European weather and low wind speeds.