Goldman Sachs Warns: AI Investment Boom Not Peaking Yet, But Market Pricing Clearly Ahead of Fundamentals

On June 24, Goldman Sachs stated in its latest research report that the AI investment boom has not yet peaked, but the market pricing for its future returns is clearly ahead of macroeconomic realizations. The firm pointed out that the share of U.S. technology investment in GDP has surpassed the peak during the internet bubble of the 1990s, with capital expenditure expectations for major cloud providers being revised up nearly 80% in the past six months for 2026. This wave of investment continues to drive revenue and profit growth in the semiconductor, cloud computing, server, and data center supply chains, leading to increasingly high valuations for AI-related assets. However, unlike the late 1990s, the current risks no longer primarily stem from a pure valuation expansion detached from fundamentals, but increasingly from the market's expectations for the long-term sustainability of high profit margins and capital returns. Goldman Sachs believes that the core contradiction of the AI market is intensifying: fundamentals remain strong, but the market has already priced in too much future earnings.