Bitunix Analyst: War De-escalation Just the Beginning, Market Entering Era of 'High Capital Cost'

BlockBeats News, June 24th. The global market focus continues to shift from the Middle East conflict to the post-war era asset revaluation. As the US-Iran negotiations progress, the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the historic passage of a US congressional resolution limiting military action against Iran, market concerns about energy supply disruptions have significantly diminished. However, the risk has not disappeared but has transitioned from geopolitics to inflation, fiscal, and funding cost issues.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has now entered a "thawing phase," with UAE crude oil exports recovering to around 85% of pre-war levels. Tankers have resumed loading in the Gulf, and the energy supply chain is rapidly returning to normal. As a result, oil prices have fallen, but shipping rates remain high, indicating that the global supply chain has not fully returned to pre-conflict levels. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bennett has emphasized the importance of critical supply chain localization and energy security, implying that the future global economy will continue to develop towards "security first" rather than "efficiency first."

On the other hand, US manufacturing data for June exceeded expectations, but factory employment fell to a six-year low, reflecting ongoing structural disparities in the economy. Market attention has also returned to the Federal Reserve's policy path. Recent developments, from Powell's policy stance, US bank rate hike expectations, to the market's reassessment of inflation stickiness, all indicate that investors are starting to consider the possibility of "sustained high rates" or even "rate hikes" rather than a rate cut.

For the crypto market, this means that the most significant short-term impact is not from the Middle East conflict itself but from changes in the global liquidity environment and risk appetite. The decrease in war risk helps reduce market safe-haven demand, but if US bond yields remain high and the Fed continues to signal hawkishness, funds may still flow preferentially to the US dollar and fixed-income assets. Key areas for future market observation will shift from the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to inflation data, the Fed's policy direction, and whether global capital costs will rise further. When the market begins to trade the price of funds rather than war news, risk assets will face a new test.