Wintermute says the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and geopolitical risks have led to market repricing

Wintermute stated that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% and sent hawkish signals. The median interest rate forecast for 2026 has been raised to 3.8%, and the probability of a rate hike in December has increased to 77%. The stalling of the Iran agreement has led the market to reassess geopolitical risk premiums. Although Strategy increased its holdings by 1,587 BTC, Wintermute believes that ETF and institutional buying have not shown a significant rebound, and risk assets may remain volatile in the short term. AI interpretation: The Federal Reserve holding rates steady while sending hawkish signals has directly shattered the market's expectations for easing policy. The upward adjustment of the median interest rate forecast clarifies the policy stance of an extended tightening cycle. The notable increase in the probability of a rate hike forces the capital markets to reassess the pressures of tightened liquidity. This policy path reinforces the persistence of a high interest rate environment, which continues to suppress the valuation of risk assets.