The 30-year German government bond yield is approaching the lower bound of the channel at 3.49%, putting medium-term bearish expectations under pressure.

(1) On Tuesday, the yield on Germany’s 30-year government bond further declined to 3.49%, just about 2 basis points above the lower boundary of its one-year trend channel. Since last year, the yield for this term has exhibited a pattern of “slowly reaching new highs followed by a rapid return to stage lows,” characterized by a volatile downward trend. (2) After peaking in September last year near the October 2023 high, this yield only broke through that level significantly in December, entering a price range not seen since 2011. It has since reached new highs several times, with the latest peak recorded at 3.715% on May 19. (3) Institutions maintain a medium-term bearish stance on the long end of the Eurozone yield curve; however, if the current yield sharply breaks below its current level, this bearish view may be temporarily shelved, pending confirmation of a new trend signal. (4) As the current yield approaches the bottom of the channel—and factoring in global trade uncertainty triggered by Trump’s tariff statements as well as the market’s repricing of the European Central Bank’s policy path—the short-term direction of long-term rates will depend on whether subsequent inflation data and central bank communication can sufficiently support a rebound in yields, or, alternatively, drive a further downward break through the current technical range.