Over 400 Large Vessels Gather Outside the Strait of Hormuz, Shipping Recovery Awaiting Clarity in US-Iran Negotiations

On June 22, shipping and satellite data monitoring revealed that despite the United States lifting some blockade measures and a few commercial vessels tentatively resuming passage, over 400 large ships are still gathered outside the Strait of Hormuz, indicating ongoing uncertainty in this critical global oil transportation route. Data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1 radar satellite shows that as of Sunday at approximately 14:15 GMT, there were 441 large vessels, close to the size of oil tankers, congregating in the waters near Sohar, Oman, and Fujairah, UAE, an increase from the early conflict period in April. Shipping companies stated that the large fleet's pre-deployment aims to quickly restore transport capacity once the strait fully reopens; however, actual passage remains highly restricted until negotiations between the US and Iran regarding ceasefire and navigation mechanisms reach a conclusion. Satellite data indicates that traffic in the main shipping lane of the strait was nearly stagnant on Sunday. Although Iran had previously agreed to open the waterway and eliminate mines, it announced a phased closure of the channel after regional tensions escalated again. Meanwhile, the US and Iran continue negotiations in Switzerland regarding 'de-escalation mechanisms' and shipping safety arrangements. The US has indicated that the discussions focus on ensuring the strait remains open and clarifying related navigation statements. In terms of shipping activity, four Qatari liquefied natural gas carriers passed through the strait on Monday, marking a temporary high since the escalation of conflict at the end of February. Additionally, some vessels have reactivated their transponders and publicly disclosed their positions, seen as a signal of marginal improvement in market risk expectations. Following the US's lifting of restrictions on some Iranian ports and vessels last week, Iranian tanker activities have also resumed, but overall shipping remains in a state of high uncertainty and low passage efficiency.