The yen approaches a 38-year low, Japanese authorities shift to "tactical silence," and the market is vigilant against sudden intervention.

BlockBeats news, on June 22, the Japanese yen against the US dollar briefly touched around 161.7 on Monday, just a step away from its lowest point since 1986 at 161.96. In response to continued depreciation, Japanese authorities have uncharacteristically remained silent, with the market generally believing this is preparation for a "surprise attack" on short sellers.

Finance Minister Katsuyuki Katayama downplayed the situation on Monday by merely saying "will respond to exchange rate fluctuations in a timely manner," with noticeably softer wording. Jun Mitsumura, considered the core signal for intervention, has been publicly silent since early May—he had issued a "final warning" before the intervention at the end of April. According to informed sources, since previous overly transparent warnings allowed speculators to exit early, the authorities are now intentionally shifting to a surprise mode to maximize the effect of intervention.

The chief FX strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities pointed out that under the cover of the lack of urgency in official rhetoric, sudden intervention will have a stronger impact. The latest CFTC data shows net short positions on the yen have surged to 145,818 contracts, the highest since July 2024, with speculative forces highly concentrated.

On inflation pressure, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Himino warned the parliament on Monday that there is a risk of price increases deviating significantly from the 2% target, and if continued yen depreciation pushes up import costs, the risk of the central bank "acting too late" should not be ignored. Analysts pointed out that the current market positions are overstretched and numb due to official silence, so once intervention begins its effectiveness will be multiplied geometrically.