The U.S. general collateral repo rate opened at 3.65%. Improved liquidity is expected to drive overnight rates lower.

(1) The U.S. general collateral repo rate opened on Monday at 3.65%, below the 10-day average starting level of 3.67%. Government-supported corporate funds have been injected into the system, which helps drive the overnight rate downward and fully offsets the $1.3 billion cash withdrawal pressure caused by the settlement of the 20-year Treasury auction.(2) Clearance activities dominate the fixed income market. Coupled with the recent reduction in Treasury bill issuance and the Federal Reserve's operations of purchasing Treasury bills to inject funds into the system, cash is actively seeking refuge in the collateral market. This may push the general collateral repo rate toward the midpoint of the 3.50% to 3.75% interest rate corridor.(3) For the remainder of today, the general collateral repo rate is expected to fluctuate in the 3.60% to 3.65% range, with the overnight rate likely to be near the lower end of the corridor. The Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repo facility rate stands at 3.50%. The number of participants on Wednesday and Thursday was 16 and 4, respectively, with total demand of $683 million and $25 million.(4) The spreads of Treasury bonds of various maturities relative to the general collateral repo rate remain stable. The spreads for 2-year and 5-year bonds are steady; the 20-year spread has fallen back to 8 basis points, after reaching 40 basis points a week earlier. Secured overnight financing rate futures opened down by 1.5 to 5.5 basis points, led by the red contracts. The overnight index swap pricing for the 0x3 term implies a 37% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike within the next 90 days.