Bitcoin remains at the $64,000 mark as the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance offsets the positive impact of the Iran ceasefire; ETF sees net outflows for six consecutive weeks.

BlockBeats news, June 22, Bitcoin maintained around 64,000 USD on Monday, stuck in a consolidation range. Last week, the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, officially ending over 100 days of conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, briefly pushing Bitcoin above 67,000 USD, but the rally was quickly suppressed by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance.

On the policy front, newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Walsh sent hawkish signals at his first FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike at the July meeting is about 36%, and the market expects at least one 25 basis point hike this year. The May CPI year-on-year reached 4.2%, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, causing rate-cut expectations to be completely dashed. The US Dollar Index (DXY) accordingly rebounded to the 100.6 to 100.8 range, exerting historic pressure on Bitcoin.

On the capital side, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with total net outflows over the past 30 days reaching 63.5 billion USD, setting a historic record. Signs of institutional capital returning remain unclear.

In the options market, 1-month implied volatility is about 39%, while realized volatility has risen above 42%. Actual price fluctuations have exceeded market pricing, indicating weakness rather than directional confidence. Below 62,000 USD, about 1.8 billion USD in options short positions are concentrated. If the price falls below this level, the forced hedging by market makers will further accelerate downward pressure, potentially triggering a stampede fall to 60,000 USD.

Analysts define Bitcoin's recent range as 60,000 to 67,000 USD, suggesting the market is in a "balance between support and resistance".