New escort plan launched in the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran diplomatic deadlock unresolved, geopolitical premium returns to the oil market

(1) The United States has announced the launch of Operation "Freedom Plan" to support commercial vessel passage in the Strait of Hormuz. Central Command stated that over one hundred aircraft will participate in the mission, which officially commenced on Monday. The operation aims to provide coordinated transit assistance for vessels from countries not involved in the war, rather than directly offering naval escorts. (2) As the US announced this mission, Iran is reviewing Trump's response to its latest peace proposal. The Iranian plan calls for ending the war within 30 days, in contrast to the US's proposed two-month ceasefire, and also demands the withdrawal of US forces from surrounding regions and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. Trump has publicly declared the proposal "unacceptable." (3) The chairman of Iran's National Security Committee warned that US intervention in the Strait of Hormuz would be regarded as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. With rising geopolitical risk, uncertainty in strait passage may continue to impact global energy transport costs. (4) Institutional analysis suggests that regardless of whether the war ends through negotiations or a frozen standoff, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to recover to prewar levels. The economic consequences of the conflict are distributed asymmetrically, with Gulf states and low-income energy-importing countries as far as the South Pacific bearing the brunt. Going forward, attention should be paid to the progress of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as Iran's actual countermeasures.