As the US and Iran begin talks in Switzerland, Trump threatens to strike Iran and US stock futures come under pressure and move lower

1. In early Asian trading on Monday, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 index futures dropped by 0.7%. Although the US and Iranian delegations have formally begun peace agreement negotiations in Switzerland, US President Trump issued threats during the talks, stating that if Hezbollah continues to launch attacks on Israel, the US will carry out military strikes.2. Trump’s tough stance overlapping with the negotiation window has once again heightened investor concerns about the Middle East situation. As geopolitical uncertainty increases, market risk appetite is suppressed; crude oil futures opened more than 2% higher in tandem, while US Treasury futures weakened.3. The outlook for this round of negotiations remains full of uncertainty. Previous analysis pointed out that the gap between Iran's stance on nuclear issues and lifting sanctions, and the verifiable concessions demanded by the US, still exists. Trump's threats further indicate that the negotiation process is not based on unilateral concessions but is accompanied by clear military pressure.4. Traders will closely monitor the progress of the negotiations, shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and any signals regarding US military deployments in the Middle East. Any signs of diplomatic breakthroughs could reverse current risk-off sentiment, while breakdown or escalation of talks may further depress risk assets.