1 smart money buy on whether the ship traffic will return to normal levels by July?

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy trader has put in $144.4k to predict "Will the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by July?" with an average buy probability of 14.1%. The current probability of "Yes" is 7.5%.

betwick has invested $144.4k, with the best-performing category being Iran in this market, with a net profit of $239k. Out of 96 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 61/96 (64%), with 28 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051-$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $1,400, making this investment 100.4 times that median.

According to the latest public data from PortWatch, the actual ship traffic is still far below the market settlement condition trigger requirement of 60.

The U.S. Central Command stated on June 20 that 55 commercial vessels had passed through the Strait of Hormuz that day, transporting over 17 million barrels of oil. However, since this market requirement is based on a 7-day moving average, even surpassing 60 ships in a single day does not guarantee that this number will be sustained at a high level in the long term. Moreover, the PortWatch page itself indicates the presence of GPS interference, AIS spoofing, and instances of ships going dark, advising caution in using the data.

At the shipping company level, the transition to normalcy is also incomplete. A Reuters report on June 15 mentioned that Asian and European shippers welcomed the U.S.-Iran agreement but are generally awaiting more details, especially regarding mine clearing, security assurances, and the sustainability of the agreement. BIMCO still considers the Strait of Hormuz a high-risk area, while companies like Mitsui O.S.K Lines have stated they will only resume sailing after full safety confirmation. Maersk had previously stated that although the ceasefire could create passage opportunities, full maritime certainty has not been provided and will continue to conduct ongoing evaluations based on the security situation and regulatory guidance.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur; there is evidence of profit-taking and stop-loss actions after opening positions.

Account:
0xc851cd9bee7d262afd78674f861f9f576a12cd2a

Total Investment: $144.3k
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