The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year is about 50%.

According to the CME "FedWatch": there is a 98.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in June, and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. By July, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged is 92.4%, with a 6.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike, and a 1.3% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. By December, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged is 49.3%, the probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike is 50%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 0.7%.