Middle East supply recovery causes slight drop in oil prices

⑴ ING stated that oil prices edged lower in the morning, with Brent crude near $91 per barrel, as concerns around short-term availability eased due to a recovery in Middle Eastern supply. ⑵ The institution pointed out that OPEC crude oil production increased by nearly 2 million barrels per day in October to 27.16 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait. Saudi production rose to 9.2 million barrels per day, approaching pre-war levels, while Iraq's output neared 4.5 million barrels per day. ⑶ The institution said that regional crude flows are approaching pre-war levels, but exports still rely on alternative routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, making supply vulnerable to further disruptions. OPEC maintained its demand forecast, projecting global oil demand to grow by 200,000 barrels per day this year and by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027. The institution expects volatility to remain elevated, with the pace of normalization in the Strait of Hormuz remaining a key driver for the outlook.