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Last week, Solana [$SOL] bulls drove a rally as high as $98.41 but could not muster the strength to challenge $100, let alone spark a move beyond this resistance.
This inherent weakness in recent months was due to the higher timeframe bearish trend.
Source:
$SOL/
$USDT on TradingView
The swing low made in April 2025 at $95.26 has served as a resistance zone in 2026. At least thus far, the sellers have maintained control of their bastion just below the $100 psychological level.
The higher timeframe bearish conviction and the weak, wider market sentiment explained Solana’s inability to scale the $100 level. Though Bitcoin [BTC] managed to climb above $80k, market participants as a whole remain more pessimistic than hopeful.
The $SOL range formation opportunity
Source:
$SOL/
$USDT on TradingView
The range formation (purple) reached from $76.7 to $97.6. The mid-range level at $87.2 was breached in recent days of trading and was being retested as resistance at the time of writing.
It appeared to offer a selling opportunity. Generally, the range extremes offer a better risk-to-reward swing trade. The invalidation is closer, and if invalidated, traders have good reason to flip their bias in the opposite direction.
The mid-range level is a lot trickier to trust. Oftentimes, the price oscillates about the mid-range level, seeming to trigger invalidations in the lower timeframes before meandering to either extreme.
Should traders enter the market or stay put?
Source:
$SOL/
$USDT on TradingView
The 2-hour chart showed that the sellers’ invalidation was clear. A price move above $87.3-$87.7 should trigger alarm bells for short-term bears. The $88-$89 area was a notable volume node, visible on the Fixed Range Volume Profile tool.
A $SOL move beyond $89 would be enough to flip the short-term bias bullishly. So long as the price is below the $87.3-$87.7 area, short-term sellers would remain in an advantageous position.
The rejection from the mid-range resistance can see a Solana price drop to $76.7, the range lows.
Final Summary
- Solana is in a higher timeframe bearish trend, and $SOL bears have persistently defended the $100 supply zone.
- The sellers followed up on the rejection from $97 almost ten days ago by flipping the mid-range level to resistance as well.
