Euro: Pressured versus US Dollar with ECB repricing – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts note EUR/USD is lacking clear direction as it trades around its 200‑DMA and approaches an ascending trend line from February 2025. The pair faces resistance near 1.1750/1.1800 and support around 1.1500–1.1390. Softer Euro PMIs and expectations of European Central Bank (ECB) tightening versus a less dovish Fed are seen as Euro‑negative.

Key resistance and downside supports

"EUR/USD has approached the ascending trend line in place since February 2025. A clear direction has been lacking as highlighted by recent crisscross moves around the 200-DMA. While a brief bounce cannot be ruled out, the recent pivot high at 1.1750/1.1800 remains a key resistance zone."

"If the decline extends, next supports could be located at the April low near 1.1500, followed by the lower boundary of the multi-month range at 1.1410/1.1390."

"Higher US yields and possible adjustment in Fed bias in June are euro negative."

"Nearly two ECB hikes are still discounted by September and three by April next year."

"This playbook would favour receiving the front-end vs the US where a shift by the FOMC from dovish to neutral could anchor the front end (bearish EUR/USD?)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)