'Follow the gigawatts': Bernstein sees upside in several bitcoin miners amid $90 billion in AI data center deals

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said bitcoin (BTC) miners are positioned to benefit from rising AI infrastructure demand, assigning “Outperform” ratings to IREN (IREN), Riot Platforms (RIOT), CleanSpark (CLSK), and Core Scientific (CORZ), while maintaining MARA Holdings (MARA) at “Market Perform.”

The ratings imply varying upside from Monday closing levels, according to The Block’s data. IREN closed at $50.46 versus a $100 target, implying a 98.1% upside, while Riot Platforms closed at $23.18 against a $25 target, or 7.8% upside. 

CleanSpark closed at $13.44 versus a $24 target, implying 78.5% upside, and Core Scientific ended Monday at $23.57, about 1.8% below its $24 target. MARA Holdings closed at $12.18 against a $23 target, implying 88.8% upside despite its Market Perform rating.

In a note to clients on Tuesday titled "Bitcoin Miners: Google-Blackstone Neocloud news - Follow the Gigawatts," the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said bitcoin miners have become embedded in AI infrastructure development, citing more than $90 billion in announced AI deals covering roughly 3.7 gigawatts of capacity across hyperscalers, neoclouds, and chip providers. 

According to the note, miners collectively control more than 27 gigawatts of planned power capacity, positioning them as counterparties to large-scale compute demand at a time when securing a single gigawatt of power can take close to 50 months across U.S. markets, including grid-constrained regions such as Texas.

The analysts pointed to deals across the ecosystem, including IREN’s planned 5-gigawatt AI compute buildout using Nvidia’s AI factory architecture and a $3.4 billion AI cloud deal tied to GPU deployment commitments, alongside Riot’s co-location deal with AMD covering 50 megawatts with an option to expand to 200 megawatts.

The note also referenced broader partnerships involving Google, Amazon, and other miners through intermediated cloud arrangements.

Challenges and risks 

Bernstein expects data centers to continue facing regulatory and permitting challenges, citing interconnection queues, zoning restrictions, environmental scrutiny, and grid capacity limitations across multiple U.S. states. 

Despite that backdrop, the analysts said bitcoin miners “still have an edge,” given existing access to grid-connected power and large-scale sites already in operation or under development.

Meanwhile, the analysts flagged a series of sector-wide and company-specific risks tied to power use, regulation, and execution. All miners face scrutiny from environmental groups over energy consumption tied to large-scale data center operations.

For Core Scientific, Bernstein said reallocating power from bitcoin mining into AI infrastructure could leave the company exposed to missed upside during a bitcoin bull cycle if its AI buildout slows. 

IREN’s AI cloud expansion is described as capital-intensive and dependent on access to flexible financing, while Riot Platforms’ concentration in Texas exposes it to potential state-level policy shifts, including taxation or operational restrictions. MARA Holdings was noted as facing production risks linked to reliance on external power partners, which could redirect capacity to other commercial uses.

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market makers or liquidity providers in the debt securities of Riot Platforms.