Bernstein maintains $190 Circle price target as $222 million ARC presale cushions rate pressure

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein maintained their Outperform rating on Circle Internet Group (CRCL) with a $190 price target, pointing to resilient USDC supply as offsets to declining interest income.

Circle shares closed at $131.76 on Monday, according to The Block's CRCL price page, with Bernstein’s price target implying about 44% upside from that level.

In a note to clients on Tuesday, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani described the ARC transaction at a $3 billion fully diluted network value as providing a near-term buffer as Circle’s reserve income declined 11% quarter-on-quarter due to weaker interest rates, while adjusted EBITDA of $151 million came in about 10% above consensus estimates.

The analysts said Q1 revenue of $694 million missed estimates by roughly 4%, driven primarily by lower reserve income, but noted that adjusted EBITDA strength and stable cost discipline supported near-term financial visibility.

USDC supply reached $77 billion in the first quarter, increasing 28% year-over-year and 2% from the previous quarter. Bernstein said Circle’s on-platform USDC balances climbed to $13.7 billion, or 18% of total supply, even as the broader crypto market declined about 40% since October 2025. 

Per the note, Circle’s payments infrastructure and distribution footprint continued to scale, with Circle Payments Network annualized transaction volume approaching $10 billion and 136 financial institutions onboarded as of May 7. Other notable partnerships include tie-ups with Meta, DoorDash, and Kyriba.

Bernstein also highlighted the impending mainnet launch of Arc, Circle’s Layer 1 blockchain, which processed over 244 million cumulative transactions and supported 1.6 million unique wallets during its testnet phase. The analysts noted that Arc’s "agentic" stack, specifically the x402 open standard for machine-to-machine micropayments, positions USDC to capture payments for AI-driven software agents.  

Outlook and rating

The note said Circle’s fiscal year 2026 guidance remains unchanged, forecasting a 40% compound annual growth rate for USDC supply and non-float revenue between $150 million and $170 million. Current guidance excludes the financial impact of the ARC token, which Bernstein noted will be recognized as other revenue upon token delivery.

Bernstein reiterated its Outperform rating, maintaining that the growth in raw USDC supply and incremental blockchain fee income offsets the near-term sensitivity to interest rate declines. The brokerage noted that USDC currently accounts for over 99% of all x402-based agentic payments settled globally.

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Certain affiliates of Bernstein have received compensation for investment banking and non-investment banking services from Circle within the past 12 months.