Everbright Futures Hotspot Tracking on May 12: Silver Leads Strongly with Over 5% Gain, Supply-Side Disruptions Support the Market

　　Today, the domestic futures market saw a strong performance in silver. As of this writing, the main contract has surged by over 5%, leading the market gains, with overall market sentiment noticeably bullish.

　　From a fundamental perspective, multiple factors are driving up silver prices. In terms of geopolitics, the ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran have reached a severe impasse, with both sides publicly intensifying their differences and the prospects for peace talks overshadowed. In other news, Peru’s energy crisis bill went into effect on May 11, with the plan lowering the priority of electricity supply for industry and mining to its lowest level. Although there has been no immediate substantive impact on mining development, Peru, as the world's third largest silver producer, has raised market concerns about possible supply-side disruptions, which may further widen the silver supply gap. This expectation has become a key catalyst for the rise in silver prices. In addition, the change in leadership at the Federal Reserve has brought policy uncertainty; the first official speech by the new chair will be in the spotlight. Should their stance lean hawkish, it could weigh on precious metals’ performance.

　　Overall, silver is showing clear short-term strength, with expected supply-side disruptions likely to continue supporting prices. However, chasing the rally is not advisable. Going forward, attention should focus on the progress of US-Iran negotiations, the actual impact of Peru's energy policy, the policy stance of the new Federal Reserve chair, and changes in silver’s supply side.

　　Source: Everbright Futures Research Institute

　　Written by: Yao Tao

　　Professional qualification: F3082336

　　Trading advisory qualification: Z0018553

Responsible Editor: Zhu Henan