US Dollar: Gradual depreciation path outlined – BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas economists expect the US economy to grow above potential in 2026, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2.4% and inflation overshooting at 3.5%. They see the Fed Funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adopts a two-sided outlook. In FX, economists project a gradual US Dollar (USD) depreciation versus the Euro (EUR) and stabilization against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and Pound (GBP).
Fed steady as Dollar seen softening
"We expect the Fed Funds target range to remain steady at 3.5% - 3.75%, with a FOMC shifting to a ‘two-sided outlook’, signaling equal readiness to implement rate hikes or cuts if warranted."
"In our base-case scenario (gradual normalisation of the Middle East situation with persistent price tensions), we expect the USD depreciation against the EUR to resume, albeit very gradually, amid broader diversification away from the dollar."
"We forecast EUR/USD to reach 1.21 by Q4 2026 and 1.25 by Q4 2027."
"We anticipate stabilisation of the yen and the GBP against the dollar in 2026 (USD/JPY 160 and GBP/USD 1.35 by Q4 2026) and 2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
NVIDIA (NVDA.US) management changes may affect Anthropic's IPO plans; the market is watching whether the multi-billion-dollar investment will change
With the sudden departure of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, the record-breaking initial public offering plan of AI giant Anthropic is being reconsidered by the market.
Nebius Q3 results exceed expectations, capital expenditure rises to $27 billion, ARR target postponed, stock falls over 14% pre-market | Earnings Report Insights
Nebius reported Q3 revenue of $981 million (a year-on-year increase of 571%) and adjusted EBITDA of $466 million, both exceeding expectations. However, the company delayed and lowered its guidance for annual recurring revenue (ARR), stating that it is no longer applicable. Additionally, it significantly raised its 2026 capital expenditure target to $27 billion, with projections to further increase to $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027. The stock price plummeted more than 14% in pre-market trading.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Breakdown of H&S pattern keeps the pair under pressure
U.S. Stock Market Preview | Major Index Futures Mixed; Nvidia Plunges Pre-market; Fed Officials' Speeches Incoming
Before the U.S. stock market opens on Thursday, November 12, the three major U.S. stock index futures showed mixed movements.
Crypto prices
More
