Everbright Futures 0508 Gold Review: No Agreement Reached, New Conflicts Erupt, Gold Price Volatility Continues

Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated and weakened, with intraday losses expanding at one point before rebounding during the writing period.

According to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor, for the week ending May 2, U.S. initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 200,000, below market expectations of 205,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.766 million, the lowest level since January 2024. The resilience of the labor market has further reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this year, adding macro-level pressure to the short-term gold outlook.

On the geopolitical front, according to a statement from Iran cited by CCTV News, two U.S. oil tankers were attacked, and the U.S., in cooperation with relevant countries, launched airstrikes on coastal regions in Iran. Several senior Iranian officials accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire agreement. U.S. Central Command stated that while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, it intercepted and conducted targeted strikes against unprovoked attacks initiated by Iran, with no damage to U.S. assets. The seamless transition from "diplomatic thaw" to "military showdown," along with frequent incidents, has caused short-term market sentiment to swing repeatedly between hope and concern, with energy prices and inflation expectations remaining unresolved.

Overall, a combination of geopolitical deadlock and policy expectations are currently the main factors putting short-term pressure on gold. However, unresolved crises and frequent high-impact events also underpin the medium- to long-term logic for gold allocation. From a strategy perspective, it is best not to chase the highs; instead, consider allocating on dips while waiting for a clearer directional signal. As the weekend approaches domestically, investors are reminded to adjust their positions and guard against overnight volatility risks stemming from sudden geopolitical events.

Source: GF Futures Research Institute

Author: Yao Tao

Professional Qualification: F3082336

Trading Advisory Qualification: Z0018553

Editor: Zhu Henan