Timing is unbelievably precise! $7 billion crude oil short positions “precisely dumped,” frequent appearances of “god-level predictions” trigger investigation

According to a recent Reuters investigation, between March and April this year, the crude oil market saw a series of massive and "extremely well-timed" short-selling trades, totaling approximately $7 billion.

These trades spanned the two major energy futures markets, ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) and CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), and not only involved Brent crude and WTI crude futures, but also European diesel futures and U.S. gasoline futures.

Such operations are primarily "short bets," where traders sell futures contracts in advance and then buy them back at lower prices after oil prices drop, profiting from the price difference.

There is always a sudden market movement minutes before Trump's major announcements

What has drawn the most market attention is that these large-scale trades almost always occurred precisely before Trump's major announcements on Iran policy.

For example, on March 23, just minutes before Trump announced postponing attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, a sudden surge of short positions in crude oil emerged in the market. On April 7, similar large selling activity appeared before Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. On April 17, the same trading pattern resurfaced before Iranian officials mentioned reopening the Strait of Hormuz. On April 21, fifteen minutes before Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire agreement, the market once again saw concentrated short selling.

Reports indicate that in each case, international oil prices plummeted over 10% following the relevant news releases.

Billions of dollars in sell orders hit within minutes

Based on Reuters' analysis of trading data, on March 23, around fifteen minutes before Trump announced the postponement of military action, traders offloaded roughly 20,000 lots of Brent and WTI crude oil futures contracts in just one minute between 1049 and 1050 GMT.

At the same time, there was a surge of selling in European diesel futures and U.S. gasoline futures. The total scale of all related energy futures bets reached about $2.2 billion.

Additionally, before the ceasefire news on April 7, the market saw another $2.12 billion in energy futures short positions dumped within the minute between 1944 and 1945 GMT.

Because these trades often happened during periods of low market volume, they have raised additional concerns among market participants and regulators.

U.S. Department of Justice, CFTC, and CME reportedly intervene in investigation

Currently, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is reportedly investigating these trades.

Reuters notes that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the CME are also monitoring these unusual market activities.

ABC News further reported on Thursday that the U.S. Department of Justice has already launched an investigation into $2.6 billion in crude oil trades connected to the Iran conflict.

However, as of now, the White House, DOJ, and CFTC have all yet to make official comments.

"These trades look like someone had prior knowledge of the news"

Many energy market experts believe these actions are "highly unusual."

Jorge Montepeque, former designer of the Platts crude oil pricing system and executive at Onyx Capital Group, said: "Just look at the facts. These trading volumes are extremely abnormal, are highly concentrated, and all occurred right before key news events."

Adi Imsirovic, senior fellow at CSIS and veteran oil trader, commented directly: "These trades look like someone with incredibly well-informed news."

New York attorney Robert Frenchman also noted: "The scale of these trades is impossible for regulators to ignore."

Single trades could net hundreds of millions of dollars in profit

Reuters estimates that with every more than 10% plunge in oil prices, these short positions could theoretically generate hundreds of millions of dollars in profits in a short time.

For example, after Trump's statements regarding a ceasefire on March 23, Brent and WTI crude prices once fell by as much as 15%; at the same time, gasoline and diesel futures prices also declined by about 12%.

Market participants believe that if these trades are ultimately proven to be based on insider information, this may become one of the most significant insider trading investigations in the global energy market in recent years.