Prominent investment management firm VanEck has officially bowed out of the forecasting game for 2026.
In a tweet posted early this morning, the firm set up a classic "thread hook." It promised 10 predictions only to deliver the following punchline: "No predictions for 2026. Good luck out there!"
Expectations vs. reality
VanEck’s outlook for 2025 was defined by aggressive bullishness. They anticipated a "super-cycle" that would culminate in massive Q4 highs. As we sit here in mid-December 2025, the gap between those forecasts and the charts is undeniable.
The firm predicted that Bitcoin would reach $180,000 during the cycle's apex in 2025.
Bitcoin did see strength earlier in the year, but it has spent the dreaded "Q4 rally" period correcting. Trading currently near $86,000, BTC is essentially at less than half the target value.
VanEck's predictions for Ethereum ($6,000) and Solana ($500) relied on a massive influx of institutional capital and dApp usage that simply did not scale as projected. Ethereum is struggling to hold the $3,000 line, nowhere near the $6K doubling predicted. Solana is trading closer to $130.
Perhaps the biggest miss was the timing. VanEck explicitly called for a "medium-term peak in Q1" (which arguably happened) followed by "new highs in Q4." Instead, Q4, 2025, has brought a massive correction.
Hence, it is not surprising that VanEck is refusing to make new predictions.
Issuing another set of uber-bullish targets would likely damage their credibility more.
