Quantum threat is overhyped: Grayscale believes it will not have a direct impact on the cryptocurrency market

The research team at Grayscale, a company with billions of dollars in assets under management, has downplayed concerns that quantum computing could threaten cryptocurrencies as early as 2026. The company believes that this technology is not yet advanced enough to impact blockchain security or market activity.

Notably, Grayscale also expressed this view in its latest report, “2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Dawn of the Institutional Era.”

The company believes that quantum computing is unlikely to affect the price, adoption, or institutional participation of digital assets next year. It stated that investors should focus on near-term drivers such as regulation, capital inflows, and market structure, rather than speculative technological risks.

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The Security of Bitcoin and Ethereum Remains Intact

According to Grayscale, bitcoin, ethereum, and other major blockchains are unlikely to be affected by quantum computing in 2026.

While the report notes that, in theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive private keys from public keys, such technology is not expected to be feasible until at least 2030.

Grayscale added that most blockchains will eventually need to update their cryptography to address post-quantum security challenges. However, relevant research and community preparations are progressing steadily, and are unlikely to impact market prices in the short term.

Advances in Quantum Technology Will Not Threaten Institutional Adoption

The report states that quantum computing is unlikely to slow the pace of institutional participation in digital assets.

Grayscale expects that banks, asset managers, and funds will continue to increase their investment exposure through regulated products such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and custody platforms. The company said that concerns about quantum risks have not yet become a barrier to institutional decision-making.

On the contrary, regulatory clarity and operational infrastructure remain the main focus for large investors entering the market.

Blockchain Security Can Evolve Gradually Before Quantum Computing Becomes Practical

Grayscale also highlighted the adaptability of blockchain networks. Unlike static systems, blockchains can update their software and adopt new cryptographic standards over time.

The report notes that research into quantum-resistant cryptography is already underway. These tools can be deployed before quantum computers reach a level sufficient to threaten existing cryptographic technologies.

The company stated that this evolutionary capability reduces the likelihood of sudden or systemic disruptions.

Why Grayscale Excludes Quantum Risk from 2026 Themes

Grayscale categorizes quantum computing alongside other trends it believes will not impact the digital asset market in 2026.

The report instead focuses on themes such as the growth of stablecoins, tokenization of real-world assets, the popularization of staking, and the expanded application of blockchain infrastructure. Grayscale states that these areas are more likely to influence prices and capital flows.

In contrast, quantum computing remains a long-term research topic rather than an active market force.

Related:How Cardano’s PQC Wallet Helps Blockchains Prepare for the Quantum Computing Era