Japan is edging toward a moment it hasn’t seen in nearly three decades.
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate to 0.75% at its December 18-19 meeting, a 25-basis-point move that would take borrowing costs towards levels last seen in the mid-1990s. The hike itself is no longer the surprise as analysts say markets have mostly priced it in.
The bigger question is how far Japan is willing to go and what that means for the rest of the world.
Governor Kazuo Ueda has been open on the direction. Sources say the rate hike proposal is likely to gain majority support from the BOJ’s nine-member policy board, with no clear opposition so far.
This would be the first hike since January 2025 and another step away from Japan’s long-standing ultra-low rate policy. Inflation has stayed above the central bank’s 2% target for more than three years, giving policymakers room to tighten without calling it restrictive.
After Ueda’s recent comments, Japan’s two-year government bond yield hit a 17-year high, while the 10-year yield climbed close to 2%. Those moves didn’t stay local. U.S. Treasury yields rose, German Bund yields followed, and the yen briefly strengthened against the dollar.
Fidelity’s Mike Riddell summed it up: “JGB sell-offs really matter for global bond markets.”
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The real concern is the yen carry trade.
For years, investors borrowed cheaply in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets overseas. Higher Japanese rates make that strategy less attractive and raise the risk of capital flowing back home.
A similar BOJ move in July 2024 was followed by Japan’s second-worst one-day stock market crash, tied to fears of carry trade unwinding.
Not everyone expects panic. Some fund managers point out that pension funds are slow to change allocations, and speculative yen positions are already elevated.
Still, Japan is one of the world’s largest creditors. If its capital starts returning home, global markets, including risk assets like crypto, will feel it.
For now, traders aren’t reacting to the hike itself but are watching what comes after.
