Société Générale: The market remains overly optimistic about Fed rate cut expectations

Jinse Finance reported that Subadra Rajappa, interest rate strategist at Société Générale, pointed out that although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion, the market is still overpricing the degree of monetary policy easing by the Fed. She analyzed that the recent two rate cuts were preemptive measures to anticipate a deterioration in the labor market, but the room for further rate cuts may now be closed. "The economy is in a relatively strong state, but the inflation outlook remains sticky," which is the core message Powell is trying to convey. Rajappa added that although the FOMC continues to focus on the labor market, inflation has remained above target since March 2021, and "policymakers may want to advance inflation control at the same time." In her view, the Federal Reserve is trying to strike a difficult balance between guarding against economic downturn and curbing persistent inflation.