BTC Breaks $112k for the First Time, Multiple Catalysts Accelerate Bull Market Progress

Original Article Title: "BTC Reaches New High as Main Uptrend is Yet to Come"

Original Source: Bitpush

With the wave of public companies accumulating Bitcoin, BTC's new high has arrived as expected. Amid widespread financial market attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, on July 9th during the U.S. stock market's closing hours, Bitcoin surpassed its previous high on May 22nd, refreshing its all-time high to nearly $112,000 per coin (CMC data shows $111,925.38), with an intraday gain of almost 3%.

Federal Reserve's June Minutes Signal Rate Cut

The Federal Reserve's minutes from the June meeting also provided the market with complex yet suggestive information.

The minutes indicated that, regarding the outlook for monetary policy, there was clear internal division within the Federal Reserve, which could be divided into three main camps:

· Mainstream Camp: Most participants assessed that lowering the federal funds target rate range later this year could be appropriate but ruled out the possibility of an immediate rate cut in July. They generally believed the committee "is entirely capable of patiently awaiting clearer signs on inflation and economic activity." The minutes noted that tariff effects on inflation may be temporary or moderate, long-term inflation expectations remain stable, and there may be some weakening in economic activity and the labor market.

· Hawkish Camp: A few participants believed that the federal funds target rate range should not be lowered this year, pointing out that "recent inflation data continue to exceed the Committee's 2% objective."

· Dovish Camp: A few participants (including "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos hinting at Fed Governors Waller and Bowman) indicated that if data evolves as they expect, they would be willing to consider lowering the policy rate target range at the next meeting.

Despite internal divisions, the signal that "most participants assessed that cutting rates later this year could be appropriate" undoubtedly strengthened market expectations of future liquidity easing, a positive macro catalyst for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Positioning Hits 15-Year High

The recent breakthrough of Bitcoin is not without basis. The latest on-chain data from ARK Invest and Glassnode shows that there is a powerful "bedrock" force in the Bitcoin market—Long-Term Holders (LTHs).

ARK Invest's latest "Bitcoin Monthly Report" points out that the total amount of Bitcoin held by Long-Term Holders has reached 74% of the total supply, a ratio that has hit a new high in the past 15 years. This strongly indicates the unwavering belief and strong bullish expectations of experienced investors in the market. They choose to continue accumulating Bitcoin instead of selling during price rallies, providing strong support to the market.

Glassnode's data also confirms this trend. In the past five years, Bitcoin's balance on exchanges has sharply decreased twice, and each decrease has been accompanied by a significant price surge. Of note, since July 2024, Bitcoin's balance on exchanges has been steadily decreasing. This suggests that investors are withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges to private wallets for long-term holding, reducing selling pressure. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin still has further room to run in its bull market.

Although the ARK Invest report also mentions that the MVRV Momentum indicator, which measures market sentiment in the second quarter, has shown a slight decline in on-chain capital flow, indicating a possible cooling of short-term market enthusiasm, the steadfast position of Long-Term Holders provides a solid foundation for the Bitcoin price, making it more resilient in the face of short-term fluctuations.

Bitcoin's "Bull Flag" Breakout Aims for Higher Targets

Several well-known analysts are also optimistic about Bitcoin's upside potential from a technical perspective.

According to TradingShot analysts, since bottoming out in November 2022, the Bitcoin price has been in a clear uptrend channel, which aligns closely with the Fibonacci channel that has been tracking the Bitcoin price since 2013. The analyst believes that Bitcoin has turned the previous "Bull Flag" top into a support level, which is a "strong bullish signal," and the price has been holding above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $106,750.

TradingShot further predicts that the breakout from this "Bull Flag" technically points to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension line, with a target price potentially reaching $168,500.

In addition, renowned trader Zerohedge pointed out on the X platform that if Bitcoin can follow its fractal pattern with the M2 money supply, once the current consolidation phase is over, the price of Bitcoin will enter a parabolic uptrend. This potential relationship between macro liquidity and Bitcoin price has added a more optimistic tone to the current market.

Glassnode compared historical cycle data and found that the current cycle shares similarities with the bull markets of 2017 and 2021 — in both of these cycles, the price of Bitcoin entered a parabolic uptrend at a similar point in time to the present and lasted for nearly a year. This implies that if history repeats, Bitcoin still has significant upside potential.

Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital also noted that if Bitcoin follows the historical pattern of 2020, the price expansion in this current cycle may only have a few months left, with the price potentially peaking in October, about 550 days before the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024.

This recent historic high for Bitcoin is the result of a confluence of macroeconomic tailwinds, institutional adoption, and public companies holding Bitcoin, among other factors. The Fed's rate cut expectations have injected ample liquidity into the market, while the strong hodling of long-term holders has formed a solid price base. From the current market momentum, it is clear that the upward trend is far from over, and the second half of the year may see an even stronger acceleration.