Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Approaching a Historic Breakout Above $110,000?

Bitcoin is just a hair away from its all-time high. The volumes on ETFs, the BRICS revolt, and the audacity of the United States are very good signs for what’s next.

Institutional rush on Bitcoin

The breaking of $110,000 seems imminent . And given the sluggish on-chain volumes, it’s still the institutional investors leading the charge.

While blocks are half empty of transactions, Bitcoin ETFs are growing visibly. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) just crossed the 700,000 BTC mark. That’s over $76 billion accumulated since its launch in January 2024. Or 55% of all BTC held through U.S. ETFs.

With $187.2 million in annual revenue, IBIT is the third most profitable ETF among the roughly 1,200 ETFs BlackRock offers. It even brings in more than the ETF backed by the S&P 500 ($187.1 million).

For reminder, IBIT crossed the $40 billion assets under management mark in just 211 days, smashing the previous record held by the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (1,253 days). It already ranks in the top 1% of ETFs by assets.

Put another way, Bitcoin is exploding and many investment firms are aiming for $200,000 before the year ends. This is the case for Standard Chartered, Bernstein, and Bitwise. Vaneck and Galaxy Digital forecast $180,000.

Others like Fundstrat Global Advisors are even more optimistic. The New York fund targets $250,000 if the U.S. government takes action by strengthening its strategic reserve of bitcoins.

Eyes on Washington

The pressure building below $110,000 suggests investors expect concrete actions from the U.S. government. Everyone’s finger is on the trigger.

According to Crypto In America, the White House will publish a report on the issue on July 22. Markets expect strong announcements. Or not. Maybe we’ll have to wait for the “Bitcoin Act” vote. Senator Cynthia Lummis indeed proposes selling gold to add one million bitcoins.

There is, however, reason to be enthusiastic when knowing that Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the parent company of Truth Social, in which President Donald Trump holds a majority stake, purchased $2.5 billion of bitcoins…

Bo Hines’ statements are also encouraging. The White House adviser stated that “it is in the interest of the U.S. government to accumulate as many bitcoins as possible”, rejecting any set limit.

Even U.S. generals, especially in Southeast Asia, support the strategic accumulation of bitcoins in anticipation of an “economic war with China”. Vice President JD Vance (who personally holds bitcoins) believes that “the strategic bitcoin reserve strengthens the U.S. economic sovereignty”.

The United States has understood that it is in their interest to get their hands on bitcoins before it becomes a credible alternative to the dollar. On this matter, Donald Trump recently warned the BRICS:

BRICS was set up to degenerate our dollar and take our dollar … take it off as the standard. And that’s okay if they want to play that game, but I can play that game too.

Donald Trump

Bitcoin at the heart of geopolitics

The Brazilian president declared at the BRICS summit that “the discussion around a new international payment currency is extremely important”. “I know it’s complicated,” he admitted while warning “humanity” against failure.

The Russian president reiterated his calls to dedollarize by establishing an “independent international settlement system” and promoting national currencies.

Yet, Russia itself refuses to accumulate too many Indian rupees. India does not produce enough things that interest Russians. Quite the opposite of China, with whom exchanges are made 95% in ruble and yuan. In other words, the BRICS need a stateless, uncensorable currency designed to keep its value.

The obvious candidate is bitcoin. You’d have to be blind not to see it. The United States has understood and intends to protect their rear. Especially since the dollar is already under strong pressure. The following chart shows that the greenback is in free fall in foreign exchange reserves:

The dollar’s share is now below 50%. This downfall is largely linked to gold purchases by the Russian and Chinese central banks, among others.

This is a problem for the United States, which has an unpayable $7 trillion debt to the rest of the world. Allowing them to accumulate bitcoins before everyone else could offer an opportunity to erase this debt and facilitate a smooth transition out of American monetary hegemony.

Finally, let’s note that global foreign exchange reserves amount to more than $12.75 trillion, enough to sextuple the value of bitcoin…

Don’t miss our article: “ Crypto died in 2021 “.