Bitcoin metric says $100K BTC was the bottom: When will a rally to new highs start?

Key takeaways:

•  Bitcoin’s monthly outflow/inflow ratio has dropped to 0.9, signaling renewed long-term confidence and accumulation.

• Despite aggressive short-side pressure on Binance derivatives, BTC has remained in a tight range between $100,000 and $110,000.

• Over 19,400 BTC were moved into institutional wallets, indicating strategic positioning by long-term holders.

After breaking above the $100,000 level on May 8, Bitcoin ( BTC ) price has closed every day above the psychological level. While BTC posted a lower range deviation to $98,300 on June 22, the crypto asset remains close to new highs above $111,800. 

While a drop to $100,000 is only a 9% correction, one metric indicates that the price range between $100,000 and $110,000 could be the new bottom range before BTC undergoes another parabolic leg in the second half of 2025. 

Data from CryptoQuant indicated that market activity is pointing toward renewed long-term confidence, with onchain data showing a significant dominance of outflows over inflows. The monthly outflow/inflow ratio has fallen to 0.9, a level not seen since the end of the bear market in 2022 and one that historically signals strong demand.

This ratio, which measures the balance between coins moving out of and into exchanges, acts as a sentiment gauge. A reading below one indicates that investors move assets off exchanges, typically reflecting accumulation behavior. In contrast, values above 1.05 have previously coincided with increased sell pressure and local market tops.

Notably, this latest drop mirrors the levels seen in December 2022, marking Bitcoin’s macro bottom near $15,500. That inflection point preceded a sustained multimonth rally, supporting the thesis that a low ratio often precedes a price reversal.

The current dominance of outflows and rising long-term holder participation offers a compelling case for a structural bottom forming. If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin may be approaching a key demand-driven pivot with the potential to mark the beginning of its next bullish leg.

Related: Bitcoin news update: BTC range tightening hints at price break to new highs

Bitcoin absorbs sell pressure from short traders

Despite sustained sell-side aggression on Binance derivatives over the past 45 days, Bitcoin has held its ground within a tight $100,000–$110,000 range. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data remains negative, signaling consistent short-selling pressure from takers. Yet, the inability of the price to break lower suggests that this flow is being absorbed, implying accumulation.

This structural resilience may be reinforced by onchain activity pointing toward institutional movement. As observed by crypto analyst Maartunn, over 19,400 BTC worth roughly $2.11 billion was transferred on Tuesday from dormant wallets into institutional-grade addresses. These coins had previously remained untouched for three to seven years, underscoring the significance of the move.

Such transfers are typically not impulsive. Such activities are often associated with strategic positioning, suggesting that large entities may step in as price holds steady amid visible short-term pressure.

The persistent sell flow, muted downside reaction, and large-scale accumulation strengthen the argument that Bitcoin is forming a bottom near $100,000. While short-term volatility may persist, the underlying bid, possibly institutional, could make a sharp correction below this level increasingly unlikely.

Related: Bitcoin price gained 72% and 84% the last two times BTC holders did this