Bitcoin has barely any actual users left

Bitcoin may be trading near all-time highs, but on-chain activity shows very different things. Despite BTC hovering around $109,000, the network’s mempool, the queue of unconfirmed transactions waiting to be included in a block, is almost empty. As of Saturday, fewer than 5,000 transactions were waiting in line. That’s dramatically lower than the 150,000+ seen during Bitcoin’s last major run-up in late 2024.

What the mempool drought means

The mempool is often seen as a real-time barometer of Bitcoin network usage. When demand is high, the mempool is full of pending transactions, and fees spike. When it’s quiet, it means few people are using Bitcoin to send funds or interact with on-chain services.

Joël Valenzuela, a longtime Bitcoin advocate and marketer, sees the current mempool levels as a serious red flag.

He warns that this could point to a crisis: a network with high valuation but no functional economy behind it. In his view, the lack of fee-based miner incentives could eventually push Bitcoin toward custodial control by institutions or governments.

What this says about retail

Joao Wedson, founder of analytics firm Alphractal, offers a different interpretation , one focused on user demographics. To him, the empty mempool is evidence that retail traders are largely absent.

When Mempool transactions begin to rise again, it’s a clear sign that retail is back — because the growing backlog reflects increased demand for using the network. Right now, activity is low and the Mempool is almost empty.

This mismatch between price and usage has become more visible since March 2025, when mempool levels began hovering between 3,000 and 30,000 transactions, well below historical norms during bullish periods.

Price rises while network remains quiet

Bitcoin’s price strength appears to be driven more by institutional accumulation, ETFs, and speculative derivatives than grassroots activity. While that’s not inherently bad, it raises questions about the health of Bitcoin’s decentralized, user-driven foundation.

Miner revenue is overwhelmingly reliant on block subsidies, the new Bitcoin issued with each block. But as the halving cycle continues and those subsidies shrink, transaction fees are supposed to fill the gap. If network activity doesn’t rise to meet that shift, it could create a sustainability issue for Bitcoin’s security model.