Trump’s August 1 Tariffs: A New Blow to the Global Economy
As negotiations drag on, the Trump administration is raising the stakes. From August 1st, significant tariffs could hit dozens of countries. A new protectionist salvo with potentially explosive consequences for the global economy!
In Brief
- The Trump administration threatens to impose tariffs of up to 70% starting August 1st.
- The global economy could be destabilized if 18 trading partners are targeted simultaneously.
Maximum pressure on the global economy and its partners
Washington is preparing to relaunch a broad trade offensive. Without a quick agreement, the new taxes announced in early April will indeed take effect in less than a month. The goal: to force the United States’ economic partners to rebalance the trade deficit.
The strategy now seems to be embraced by the Trump administration. Proof: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Sunday the sending of nearly 100 letters to targeted countries. President Donald Trump himself has already signed a dozen letters from Air Force One.
The economies of the European Union, China, and other major trading powers find themselves directly in the crosshairs. The reason: their share in the US trade deficit that Trump considers unacceptable.
Direct consequences on trade and economic growth
This maneuver risks shaking up international trade. By targeting 18 countries representing 95% of the US trade deficit, the United States could indeed destabilize global trade relations as a whole. Admittedly, Europe has begun negotiating under threat . That said, other countries remain defensive.
Good to know: tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% would cause a sharp rise in import prices. This would inevitably affect supply chains as well as financial markets.
The already fragile global economy could therefore falter under this new pressure.
For crypto investors, this instability could rekindle interest in alternative assets outside traditional circuits. The economy could then experience a brutal rebalancing, reshuffling the cards of global trade power.
In any case, Trump is playing a tight game. If the threats materialize, the global economy could shift into a new era of tensions. A situation to watch very closely in the coming weeks!
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
AI investment enters the "Trough of Disillusionment", the next 18 months will be a life-or-death test!
Goldman Sachs believes that the AI investment cycle is currently in the "trough of disillusionment," but this is not the first time. The core contradiction lies in the fact that the business models of new cloud computing providers are highly dependent on end-user returns from AI spending, while currently "there are basically zero companies that can attribute profits to AI." Social Capital founder Palihapitiya has clearly defined an 18-month key window, during which the market will decide which AI business models are sustainable and which are not.
Anthropic's Core Concern: Revenue Can Be Withdrawn at Any Time, but Computing Power Costs Are Locked in for up to 20 Years
Zheshang Securities believes that Anthropic's revenue is mainly based on usage-based billing, with remaining performance obligations covering only about 5.1 months of annualized revenue, while compute power costs are already locked in with $895.4 billion in irrevocable commitments, some extending as far as 2045. Revenues can be reduced at any time, but costs are non-exitable, creating a highly asymmetric maturity gap between the two—this is the company's real core constraint.
Triple Pressure from the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and Congress; Goldman Sachs: Liquidity Crisis May Occur in 2027
Goldman Sachs warns that the reserve ratio of bank assets has dropped to around 11%, only slightly above the crisis trough of 2019. In the second half of 2027, a deadlock in debt ceiling negotiations will force the Treasury to rebuild the TGA, triggering a "perfect storm" of a sharp drop in reserves and a surge in T-bill supply; combined with stalled money market fund buying, this will create a huge liquidity black hole. The Federal Reserve could be forced into the awkward position of lowering interest rates and launching large-scale bond purchases to rescue the market.
Crypto prices
More
