4 US Economic Signals That Could Move Bitcoin This Week
2025/07/06 23:00With crypto markets entering the second week of July, traders and investors must monitor several US economic signals or indicators. These data points could influence their portfolios, potentially causing a surge or drop in the Bitcoin (BTC) price.
The influence of US economic indicators on Bitcoin price has proven significant in 2025, after a period of dissipating in 2024.
US Economic Indicators To Watch This Week
While multiple US economic signals are being released this week, only the following may be poised to drive Bitcoin and crypto market sentiment.
Consumer Credit
The first US economic indicator to watch this week is due Tuesday, which will track borrowing trends while reflecting consumer confidence and spending power.
After US consumer credit rose by $17.87 billion in April, economists forecast a rise of $10 billion in May. If this prediction is accurate, it would almost align with the March reading of $10.85 billion.
Given that falling credit levels suggest a lack of optimism in the market, a drop in US consumer credit could divert capital from traditional markets to speculative assets like Bitcoin, with consumers fueling economic growth.
— Unicus (@UnicusResearch)
Nearly 33% of the total US population are subprime.– Between student loan default and BNPL impacting credit, subprime consumers are slowly losing access to credit.– The credit system is on track to marginalize ~33% of the U.S. population.No warning. No appeals. Just a…
More closely, stagnant or declining credit often points to caution, with Bitcoin as the go-to investment to hedge against economic slowdown or fiat instability.
FOMC Minutes
The Fed’s May FOMC meeting minutes are another US economic signal likely to cause volatility in the Bitcoin price. This data point on Wednesday comes after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to leave interest rates steady in May.
Following this decision, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed inflation rose at an annual rate of 2.4% in May, after 2.3% Year-on-Year (YoY) in April.
For the first time since January 2025, headline CPI inflation was back on the rise in May. Inflation in the US remains above the Fed’s 2% target and mandate to achieve maximum employment.
“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further,” the US Federal Reserve said in its May release.
The Wednesday report provides traders and investors with a window into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy direction. The minutes detail discussions on interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, likely influencing market sentiment.
A hawkish tone would suggest tighter policy or fewer rate cuts, which could see Bitcoin face downward pressure. A stronger US dollar would result in a potential drop in the Bitcoin price.
On the other hand, the FOMC signaling a dovish outlook would suggest incoming rate cuts, potentially boosting risk appetite. Such a move would drive capital into crypto as cheaper borrowing encourages investment in high-growth assets.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, interest traders wager a 95.3% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady in the next meeting on July 30.
Fed Interest Rate Cut Probabilities. Source:
CME FedWatch Tool
Notwithstanding, Fed Chair Jerome Powell could reaffirm previous comments about resisting premature rate cuts despite political pushback from President Trump. Given Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity, any unexpected pivot could spark volatility.
Bitcoin Advocate Novogratz Urges Investors to Buy BTC Amid Political Pressure on Powell
— FOMC Alerts (@FOMCAlerts)
Meanwhile, Fed chair Jerome Powell continues to blame President Trump’s tariffs for his refusal to lower interest rates.
He has defended the FOMC’s universal decision to steady the Federal Funds Rate. Powell cited expected inflation bubbling up prices this summer from trade policies. These constitute external sales taxes on imported goods and services.
Initial Jobless Claims
Also, the initial jobless claims are on the watchlist among this week’s US economic signals. This data point will highlight the number of US citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week.
Economists anticipate a modest increase to 235,000 last week after the 233,000 reported for the week ending June 28. This US economic indicator could influence sentiment as this US labor market data progressively grows as Bitcoin’s next macro.
Despite the expectation of a modest surge, rising claims could signal economic softening. This could boost Bitcoin as traders anticipate Fed rate cuts later in the year. On the other hand, lower claims may strengthen the dollar, pressuring crypto prices.
Digital Asset Tax Policy
Another data point that could influence Bitcoin sentiment is the digital asset tax policy hearing on Wednesday, July 9.
On this day, the House Ways & Means Oversight Subcommittee will hold a hearing on “Making America the Crypto Capital of the World.” The country focuses on building a 21st-century tax policy framework for digital assets.
The U.S. House just announced a hearing on digital asset tax policy.It’s set for Wednesday, July 9 at 9:00 AM in D.C.
— TFTC (@TFTC21)
The general focus is on the affirmative steps needed to place a tax policy framework on digital assets.
“No cap gains tax on crypto is the only way to make America the crypto capital of the world,” one user quipped.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source:
BeInCrypto
Meanwhile, with these US economic signals in the pipeline, Bitcoin was trading for $109,150 as of this writing, up by over 1% in the last 24 hours.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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