Bitcoin Dives on OG Whale FUD, But Charts Remain Bullish: Analysis
2025/07/04 22:20War, geopolitical uncertainty, President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill"—with so much going on, what could possibly be shaking the Bitcoin market today? How about one of the biggest Bitcoin holders in history suddenly moving $8 billion from their wallet? Yikes.
The crypto community was shaken today by the movement of 80,000 BTC—worth approximately $8.6 billion at today’s prices—from wallets that had remained dormant for over 14 years. This "OG" holder, who controls the funds across eight wallets, received their coins in April and May 2011—way back when Bitcoin traded between $0.78 and $3.37. Talk about diamond hands.
The entity—whoever it, he, she, they are—had accumulated up to 200,000 BTC at one point in 2011, representing what would be $22 billion today. That puts this whale in the top five Bitcoin holders of all time, according to Coinbase Director Conor Grogan. The Coinbase exec initially speculated that the wallets could belong to an unmarked crypto exchange, then said it was more likely a very early Bitcoin miner, before landing on it possibly being the result of a hack. Oh boy.
The timing of the move, on a U.S. holiday weekend when "everyone is at the beach," has also raised eyebrows and stirred speculation across Crypto Twitter about potential market manipulation.
Needless to say, skittish Bitcoin traders didn’t like this one bit, as the price of Bitcoin fell from above $109,000 to around $107,500 following news of the OG whale’s moves. This won’t be welcomed news to the 40% of users over on Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, who predicted the price of Bitcoin would stay above $108,000 by the end of the week. But to the 59% of bears who said Bitcoin would dip, congrats.
So where could Bitcoin go from here in the long-term? Let’s take a look at the charts.
Short-term traders appear to be taking profits after Bitcoin's 15% rally over the past 60 days, creating a "sell the news" dynamic. The cryptocurrency faces immediate technical resistance at the $110,561 swing high from June 27, unable to break past the resistance of a short bearish channel that has been in play for seven weeks already.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, which measures how strong or weak a price trend is, reads 25—sitting exactly at the threshold that typically separates choppy, directionless markets from trending ones. Think of ADX as a trend strength meter: below 25 means weak or no trend, above 25 indicates a trend is developing, and above 40 signals a very strong trend.
The Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, also tell a bullish story despite recent weakness. EMAs usually behave like dynamic support and resistance levels that give more weight to recent prices. The 50-period EMA (the faster-moving average, measuring the average price of the last 50 weeks) sits at $87,394, while the 200-period EMA (the slower, more significant one) is way down at $56,114. When price trades above both EMAs and they're rising, it confirms an uptrend. Bitcoin remains well above both, maintaining its long-term bullish structure.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, currently reads 62. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains to recent losses on a scale of 0-100. Readings above 70 suggest the asset might be moving up too fast (overbought), while below 30 indicates it might be oversold. At 62, Bitcoin shows moderate upward momentum with room to run higher before becoming overheated.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows there is still a solid bullish trend in play. This indicator identifies when volatility is expanding after being compressed—like a spring being released. When the squeeze is "off," it means volatility is increasing, and the green signal suggests the likely direction is upward.
In other words, indicators show that, for now, position traders and hodlers are still bullish, despite the current bearish mood among short-term traders.
Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $110,000 (recent rejection point), $115,000 (psychological level)
Support: $105,000 (immediate), $100,000 (major psychological), $87,394 (50-week EMA)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Anthropic's Core Concern: Revenue Can Be Withdrawn at Any Time, but Computing Power Costs Are Locked in for up to 20 Years
Zheshang Securities believes that Anthropic's revenue is mainly based on usage-based billing, with remaining performance obligations covering only about 5.1 months of annualized revenue, while compute power costs are already locked in with $895.4 billion in irrevocable commitments, some extending as far as 2045. Revenues can be reduced at any time, but costs are non-exitable, creating a highly asymmetric maturity gap between the two—this is the company's real core constraint.
Triple Pressure from the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and Congress; Goldman Sachs: Liquidity Crisis May Occur in 2027
Goldman Sachs warns that the reserve ratio of bank assets has dropped to around 11%, only slightly above the crisis trough of 2019. In the second half of 2027, a deadlock in debt ceiling negotiations will force the Treasury to rebuild the TGA, triggering a "perfect storm" of a sharp drop in reserves and a surge in T-bill supply; combined with stalled money market fund buying, this will create a huge liquidity black hole. The Federal Reserve could be forced into the awkward position of lowering interest rates and launching large-scale bond purchases to rescue the market.
U.S. Stock IPO Preview | From Losses to Net Profit of 5.46 Million: The "Three-Dimensional" Platform Business Strategy with a Taste for Golf
Crossing the break-even line, the growth inflection point has arrived.
Crypto prices
More
