Bitcoin $107,825 , after a relatively stable second quarter, tested the $110,000 resistance mark in early third quarter 2025. Analysts caution that surpassing this level might propel prices to $120,000 though volatility is expected. Standard Chartered predicts a peak at $120,000 during August-September. However, experts warn of a potential pullback to $88,000 if Bitcoin closes below $100,000.
Critical $100,000 Threshold for Bitcoin
Despite the calm summer months, macroeconomic developments are poised to influence market direction in the third quarter. Historically, Bitcoin’s peak is projected to occur between the 525th and 546th days post-halving, around mid-October. Analysts stress that tight global liquidity and high interest rates might limit guidance from previous cycles.
In the short term, the $100,000 level is critical. If the price sustains above this mark, it could fuel a bullish scenario. Conversely, a downward break may activate buyers around the $88,000 region. Analysts believe that sudden price drops could present buying opportunities, particularly for institutional investors.
Standard Chartered supports this outlook, proposing that if institutional demand and ETF entries persist, Bitcoin could rise to $120,000 by the August-September period. Such an increase is anticipated to bolster market confidence.
Anticipating Altcoin Season Amid Liquidity Challenges
The increase in global M2 money supply since the beginning of the year has been limited compared to the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. However, expectations for interest rate cuts are growing. The Federal Reserve has a 25% probability of reducing rates by 25 basis points in July and a 71% likelihood in September. If liquidity increases, trading volumes and prices of both Bitcoin and altcoins are expected to rise.
Currently, the Crypto Altcoin Season Index stands at 23, indicating low investor interest in this sector. Yet, the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance is nearing $115 billion, gradually approaching the $175 billion peak of 2021.
Despite Bitcoin’s market dominance, Ethereum $2,509 is tightly bound around $2,500, with historical data suggesting a potential average return of 24% in the fourth quarter, keeping hopes alive for a general altcoin rally.
Altcoin Sezonu Endeksi – 4 Temmuz 2025 Verisi
On the altcoin front, while the TVL is rising, prices lag behind, creating what analysts term a “silent strength.” Experts anticipate significant double-digit gains in smart contract altcoins, assuming Bitcoin’s dominance loosens.
Altcoin TVL Metriği – 4 Temmuz 2025 Verisi
