Donald Trump’s odds of winning the US presidential elections have dropped to 54% on the blockchain-based predictions platform Polymarket. The decline represents an 18% drop from the 72% July peak fueled by the failed assassination attempt.
The decline is mainly due to the rising interest in Vice President Kamala Harris as a potential challenger to Trump. Some in the crypto community find her appealing due to speculation that she might support the industry. However, many remain uncertain about her actual position on crypto.
Trump loss, Harris gains
Despite the decline in Trump’s odds of winning, the former president still maintains his position as a favorite. However, Harris is closing in on him and recently saw a 5% increase in her odds on Polymarket, taking her chances to 43%.
The increase in her odds comes after Trump made comments questioning Harris’s racial identity. Besides that, the vice president has seen an uptick in her chances in mainstream polls. A recent Bloomberg poll shows that Harris now has a chance of winning six out of the seven swing states.
Trump’s Falling Election Chances (Source: Polymarket)
However, Trump remains a favorite within the crypto community due to his vocal support for the industry . The former president has made several promises that, if fulfilled, would enable the industry to flourish in the US.
If he is re-elected, Trump promised to fire the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair, Gary Gensler, and end the regulatory war on crypto. He also vowed to ensure that all the remaining Bitcoin is mined in the US and make the top crypto a reserve asset for the country.
Although some of these promises have been questioned as impossible, the majority believe his pro-Bitcoin stance shows he has a clear plan for the sector. Meanwhile, Harris has yet to openly state her position on cryptocurrencies, but several industry stakeholders claim she is open-minded about the industry.
Critics argue that Harris will be wrong for crypto
There is no denying that Harris is enjoying some momentum in the presidential race. But, some crypto community members believe her victory could spell doom for the industry. Youholder analyst Ruslan Lienkha warned that the price of Bitcoin could suffer if Harris’s odds of winning keep increasing, as her win might not lead to significant changes in crypto policies.
“With a Harris win and no major shifts expected in the regulatory landscape, the SEC will likely attempt to apply the existing traditional finance framework to the crypto market,” Lienkha said.
Crypto attorney Gabriel Shapiro shares the same sentiment. He claims that all signs show that Kamala Harris is bearish for the crypto markets and the economy in general, but people are still supporting her.
“The market knows Kamala is insanely bearish for crypto, tech, business and the economy yet most of my feed is cryptobros pleading that we simp to her failed regime yet again.”
One user added that the problem is not peculiar to Harris but to the Democratic Party and its desire for the government to have a role in everything. While they admitted that the Republican Party has not always upheld its less government involvement principle, they noted that its ideology aligns more with the crypto’s decentralized framework.
