Will this cycle skip Ethereum?
I'm going to take the perspective of long-term Ethereum bulls, not the obviously wrong dyed in the wool Ethereum is dead haters.
There's broadly two perspectives.
1) This cycle will skip Ethereum.
Why? Puberty is why. Ethereum is going through it's awkward emo stage where trying out adulthood and the wORLd doesn't uNDerSTAND.
The big change is L2s. This is the first cycle Ethereum is basically telling new users - nah don't use Eth, we're too expensive, but good news we've got 100 shiny new L2s you'll love it. Bridge, fragment, frustrate, repeat.
"But L2s are Ethereum!!!"
Yeah yeah i know in the fullness of time that's right. L2s are amazing, the best long-term way to scale decentralization, vitalik's vision etc etc. Don't tell me - I've been mod-pilled since like 2021 polynya - but thing is, i'm not the new marginal buyer of ETH.
Who is the new buyer?
It's memecoin chad. It's app-user stacy. It's tradfi larry.
But chad and stacy are busy buying the token on the chain they're using and there's 96 distractions on L2beat. Larry's buying bitcoin - you think he gaf about onchain cash flows rn?
"But fragmentation is being solved and fundamentals matter because...." Let me stop you there.
I know.
It's puberty. Ethereum is biting the bullet, taking the hard road, going through its necessary awk phase in order to become a mature and well-functioning grown ass chain while toddler chains take shortcuts. FEW.
It's the long term play but will it pay off this bull cycle?
Nope. We skip the cycle.
2) The ETH Bull is Coming.
"You stupid narrative trader" the second ETH bull says. "Of course 10k ETH is coming...give it a min. BTC first, then ETH this is how it happens."
Indeed you'd have to be a fool not to see how much stronger Ethereum is compared to its 2020 cycle.
Only profitable chain it's not even close. Rock solid monetary economics. Largest exchanges in the world doing ETH L2s. ZkEVMs here. Unlimited L2 budgets accelerating ETH tech. Verge of ETH ETF. Blackrock tokenized treasuries...omg the fundamentals are insane.
Your chain has 1m users? Cool. Ethereum is the root-chain for 1,000 chains w/ 1m users each watch them eat your fees - L2 chain fragmentation?? 100% being fixed, other chains taking mad centralization debt they'll have to pay back - THIS IS THE GWEI
Only a matter of time before investors wake up and start starting valuing cash flows instead of narrative junk food.
ETH missing this cycle would be the dumbest of outcomes and is just so improbable it's barely worth considering...markets are weighing machine so The ETH Bull is Coming.
Two perspectives for ETH bulls.
The Skippooors and the Waitoors.
Which are you?
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
October Non-farm Payrolls Reignite December Rate Hike Expectations! Wall Street Bets Probability Over 80%, "New Fed News Agency": AI Sell-off May Become a Policy Variable
After the non-farm payroll report, traders' bets on a December rate hike surged to as high as 85%. Wall Street analysts believe the report provides room for further rate hikes, bringing renewed pressure for a hike at a time when post-election market concerns over slowing AI development might dampen expectations. Some remain cautious about a December hike, as stock market volatility and AI investment prospects could restrain the Federal Reserve. "New Fed News Agency" notes the report has not shaken the Fed's outlook on economic growth and inflation, but whether AI asset sell-offs change financial conditions could become a new variable for the December decision. Attention should be paid to whether Waller values lagging employment data or forward-looking market signals.
U.S. non-farm payrolls surge by 165,000 in October, far exceeding expectations! Unemployment rate unexpectedly drops to 4.1%, December rate hike expectations intensify
In October, US non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, which is 2.5 times the Wall Street median forecast of 65,000 and represents an exceptionally strong deviation of about 5 standard deviations, exceeding the upper limit of all institutional forecast ranges. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while the market had expected it to remain unchanged; average hourly wages also accelerated year-on-year growth to 3.1%. Meanwhile, the previous two months' non-farm payrolls were revised upwards by a total of 84,000. Following the release of the data, the yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds rose by 7 basis points, and the pricing of the probability of a Fed rate hike in December climbed to 70%.
AI Sell-off Hits Anthropic IPO, Potential Valuation Expected to Drop to $1.2–1.3 Trillion
The valuation range discussed by potential investors has been lowered from the previous high of $2 trillion to between $1.2 trillion and $1.3 trillion, and some strategists have even suggested going below $1 trillion to ensure safety. In the face of significant market volatility and financial concerns such as quarterly losses, Anthropic is facing tough decisions, including a discounted valuation, reducing the size of the offering, or postponing the listing.
Crypto prices
More
