AI Sell-off Hits Anthropic IPO, Potential Valuation Expected to Drop to $1.2–1.3 Trillion

Anthropic PBC's IPO plans are facing serious challenges. Following a sharp sell-off in tech stocks and a 6.4% one-day plunge in the Nasdaq 100 Index, potential investors have significantly lowered their valuation expectations for this AI company, with both the timing of the listing and the rationality of the pricing coming under scrutiny.

According to Bloomberg on the 6th, citing a person familiar with the matter, some potential investors are now discussing a valuation range as low as $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion. Previously, investors gave a valuation of $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion to the underwriting banks after the company's financial briefing in October. At the peak in early October this year, expectations even soared to $2 trillion. The source pointed out that these discussions are still ongoing and no final decision has been made. An Anthropic spokesperson declined to comment.

This situation sends a crucial signal to sentiment across the entire AI sector. On Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 Index wiped out $2.3 trillion in market value in a single day, marking a record one-day drop. At the same time, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), a gauge of market volatility, climbed to its highest level since April 2025, putting even more pressure on investors in any large IPO.

Thursday's market plunge occurred on the eve of the formal roadshow launch, causing already pressured valuation expectations—due to fundamental controversies—to take a further hit.

Stephan Kemper, Chief Investment Officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany, said:

"Given the reevaluation of valuations across the AI sector, I anticipate that Anthropic's pricing will likely need to fall at the low end of the rumored $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion target range, or even 10% to 15% below that."

Gallo Partners' Chief Investment Officer Michael Alfaro told Bloomberg, even before the market plunge, that Anthropic needs to set its valuation target between $1.3 trillion and $1.4 trillion "in order to build a high-quality order book."

David Rainville, Technology Portfolio Manager at Sycomore Asset Management, commented: "If they set the valuation at the lower end—say $1.2 trillion—finding investors shouldn’t be an issue."

Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC Holdings, was even more conservative, arguing that a valuation below $1 trillion would actually be safer for investors. He told Bloomberg Radio:

"I don't think we need a headline like 'Wow, it's a trillion-dollar IPO.' What matters more is the performance in the secondary market. If we see a scenario like SpaceX—where the share price briefly spikes after secondary market buying and then crashes—that's the last outcome you want to see in the current environment."

The immediate trigger for this round of AI stock sell-off was the election results. The results in Congress brought AI policy skeptics into positions of power, and several states passed moratoriums that may delay data center construction, directly impacting the logic of AI infrastructure investment.

This political signal is particularly unfavorable for Anthropic. The pressure on valuation partly stems from investors scrutinizing the company's financial condition—Anthropic continues to report quarterly losses and has made large-scale capital commitments to AI infrastructure partners.

According to Reuters, some investors are also waiting for October revenue data that has not yet been disclosed in the latest revision of Anthropic’s S-1 filing, in order to evaluate whether the company's recent growth rate has picked up. The lack of key data makes it even harder for institutional investors to make significant subscription decisions in the current market environment.

Alexandre Baradez, Chief Market Analyst at IG Paris, said:

"This sell-off certainly poses some risk to the Anthropic IPO, but from another perspective, entering the market after the valuation bubble has cleared might actually be the better timing."

According to a previous Wallstreetcn article, in the face of market headwinds, Anthropic and its advisors need to weigh their options among several paths.

First, they could launch the formal roadshow at a conservative size and valuation, adjusting based on initial subscription response. Chip manufacturer Cerebras Systems and design software company Figma both adopted this approach, expanding issuance size later as bankers saw rising demand—but both companies are now trading below their IPO prices.

Second, they could delay the listing. By regulation, a company must wait at least 15 calendar days after making IPO filings public before beginning their formal roadshow. However, some companies wait several weeks or even months after the public filing to update quarterly financial data. While a delay can sidestep recent market volatility, it might also heighten concerns about the overall health of the AI ecosystem, especially given the clear political signals limiting data center construction.

Rick Meckler, Partner at Cherry Lane Investments, remains cautiously optimistic about the long-term outlook, believing that "these companies will eventually be part of the future, and investor interest is still there." However, whether optimistic expectations can support Anthropic in going public at its desired valuation under current market conditions remains to be seen.