U.S. existing home sales fall to a 16-year low as high interest rates and inflation continue to suppress housing demand

The US existing home market continues to face pressure, with October sales falling to the lowest level since 2010. High mortgage rates and persistent inflation are deterring potential buyers.

Data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that October existing home sales declined by 5.5% month-over-month, with the annualized rate dropping to 3.75 million units. Sales in the Western region fell to the lowest level on record since 1999, while the South and Midwest also hit the lowest levels in over a decade.

Despite significantly shrinking demand, signs of rising inventory and softening prices are gradually emerging, potentially bringing a glimmer of hope to the sluggish market. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated that if mortgage rates fall, the currently suppressed home buying demand could be unleashed on a large scale.

Mortgage rates above 7% and persistently high inflation are the core driving forces behind this decline in existing home sales. For most potential buyers, the monthly payment burden has significantly exceeded their affordability, forcing them to postpone home purchase decisions.

NAR's Housing Affordability Index—which measures whether typical families qualify for a median-priced home loan—has dropped to its lowest level since mid-2025, and housing cost pressures have become a key topic influencing this midterm election.

Lawrence Yun noted in a statement: "Even with the labor market continuing its robust growth, current existing home sales remain so weak. Once mortgage rates decline, the magnitude of pent-up home buying demand could be considerable."

The supply side is showing marginal improvement. According to NAR data, October existing home inventory for sale rose by 4.6% year-over-year to 1.59 million units, the highest for the same period since 2019. At the current sales pace, this equates to 5.1 months' supply, the highest level since the end of 2015.

On price, the median sale price for existing homes in October was $416,700, up only 0.4% year-over-year—the smallest annual increase since February this year, indicating noticeably weaker upward price momentum.

According to Bloomberg, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Drew Reading pointed out in a November 9 report that, despite a decline in new listings, the market’s existing inventory continues to rise, further indicating that price pressures are building up.

Weaker demand has led more sellers to proactively adjust their pricing strategies. Independent data released this week by online real estate platform Redfin showed that 36% of homes sold last month had at least one price reduction, the highest proportion recorded by the platform.

Additionally, NAR data also revealed that October existing condo sales fell year-over-year to the lowest level on record since 1999, with market weakness spreading across multiple segments.

Meanwhile, separate data on Thursday indicated that US initial jobless claims rose to 200,000 last week, but overall levels remain near historic lows, with no significant signs of deterioration in the job market yet.