Stock price plunges! Nebius (NBIS.US) full-year revenue guidance misses expectations, next year's capital expenditure guidance exceeds $40 billion, raising ongoing concerns over AI spending financing.

According to Golden Ten Data APP, Nebius (NBIS.US) released its financial report for the third quarter of 2026 ended September 30 before the US stock market opened on November 12: revenue was $980.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 571%, surpassing the consensus estimate (about $907.5 million) by 8%; adjusted EBITDA was $465.8 million, significantly higher than the expected $357.4 million; adjusted net profit was $90.9 million, far better than the market’s expected loss of $271.4 million.

According to GAAP, net loss from continuing operations was $37.5 million, and diluted loss per share was $0.13; operating profit turned positive to $50.4 million. The loss was mainly due to interest expenses of $112.5 million and a one-off convertible bond conversion expense of $49.5 million — operationally profitable, the book loss stemmed from financing. The net profit of $393.3 million for the first three quarters also needs to be broken down: it includes $780.6 million from the revaluation of equity investments, and after exclusion, the company is still operating at a loss.

The guidance is a double-edged sword this quarter: the company expects full-year 2026 revenue to be at the lower end of the $3 billion–$3.4 billion guidance range, below the market expectation of about $3.37 billion; but it also projects 2027 revenue to be $12 billion–$13 billion—approximately four times that of 2026—and expects to achieve pre-tax breakeven by the end of 2027. The capital expenditure guidance for 2027 is as high as $40 billion–$45 billion.

The scale of expansion and financing is the narrative’s core: capital expenditure for the first three quarters was $15.43 billion; the company stated that customers are locking in capacity with longer contracts, higher prices, and greater prepayments, with prepayments now covering over 100% of the associated contract capital expenditure—contract liabilities increased by $7.83 billion in the first three quarters. The balance sheet expanded simultaneously: total assets grew from $12.43 billion at the beginning of the year to $38.74 billion, with cash at $7.43 billion and non-current debt at $14 billion.

Addressing the market’s key question on “how to finance AI construction,” CEO Volozh responded directly in the shareholder letter: in the third quarter, new contracts were signed for longer terms, at higher prices, and with more prepayments; since the third quarter, the total value of new contracts signed has exceeded $12 billion, with prepayments covering over 100% of the related capital expenditure (compared to 50%-60% in Q2); prepayments and investment-grade contract asset collateralized financing are expected to cover 75%-85% of the 2027 capital expenditure of $40–$45 billion, with the scale of prepayments expected to grow from about $10 billion in 2026 to $17–20 billion in 2027. The customer base is expanding: Databricks, Datadog, Palantir, and Snowflake all signed multi-year agreements for the first time. The shareholder letter also stated that the result of the US presidential election is not expected to affect the development of its new and managed sites.

After the earnings report was released, as of the time of publication, shares fell roughly 10% pre-market; the previous week, the company’s stock price had sharply corrected along with other AI concept stocks.