MSCI removes Strategy (MSTR.US): 850,000 BTC holdings under pressure, passive selling pressure falls on the stock rather than Bitcoin

According to Woofun AI, the world's largest Bitcoin-holding company, Strategy (MSTR.US), has been officially added to the exclusion list of MSCI (MSCI.US). This decision will take effect after the close of the U.S. stock market on the 30th and directly undermines its core logic of attracting passive capital inflows through index funds.

This adjustment stems from MSCI tightening its inclusion criteria for non-operating companies, aiming to exclude firms that resemble investment institutions. Although Strategy holds $4.77 billion in cash reserves and appears to have ample liquidity, market attention remains focused on its 850,364 Bitcoin holdings.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, if funds that track the relevant indices sell off Strategy shares, this does not directly compel the sale of Bitcoin but could trigger a chain reaction. As of the 8th, its U.S. dollar reserves are sufficient to cover about three years of preferred stock dividends and convertible bond interest. However, the board has already approved the sale of up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to pay dividends, interest, and replenish reserves.

In fact, since the beginning of 2026 up to October 25th, Strategy has raised about $431.8 million by selling Bitcoin, while the additional sales quota for supplementing reserves has not yet been used.

Meanwhile, the pressure to increase holdings has not disappeared. Between the 2nd and 8th alone, Strategy raised about $283.8 million by issuing common stock, including $81.9 million spent on purchasing 1,036 Bitcoin, $188.3 million for buying back preferred shares, and another $13.6 million deposited into its U.S. dollar cash account, indicating diversified use of funds.

Share price volatility is a key variable. JPMorgan (JPM.US) predicted in November last year that the exclusion could result in approximately $2.8 billion of sell-off pressure, which could force the company to issue more shares to raise an equivalent amount, further diluting equity and weakening its ability to increase holdings. This estimate referred to MSCI's old proposal from October 2025—which was withdrawn in January 2026—requiring "digital assets to account for 50%," and is not aimed at the newly adopted rule. MSCI has not officially announced the scale of passive capital outflows from this adjustment. The current exclusion list also includes Japanese Bitcoin-holding company MetaPlanet and SOL-holding Upexi (UPXI.US), while ETH-holding Sharplink (SBET.US) was not excluded but was placed on the watch list. All these companies rely on issuing shares to buy digital assets; if stock prices fall, financial stability will be prioritized over increasing holdings. MetaPlanet has made it clear that if its stock price falls below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings, it will prioritize share buybacks and debt repayment. Upexi and Sharplink may partially ease the pressure through staking proceeds, but companies over-reliant on equity financing generally face a weakening ability to increase holdings. If mainstream indices like Nasdaq adopt similar standards, the institutional investor base will shrink further. Strategy argues that funds tracking MSCI indices only hold 3.1% of its common shares, so the impact is limited, but even this proportion could cause significant volatility under extreme market conditions.

From an industry structure perspective, the index exclusion marks a repricing of passive investment logic for crypto-native companies. As financing channels tighten, companies will shift from "unlimited accumulation" to a "liquidity-first" approach, which may reshape the long-term supply curve of the Bitcoin market. Following tighter regulations, this represents another stress test of market mechanisms for high-leverage crypto holding strategies.