US Dollar: Hawkish skew supports upside risks – ING

ING strategists led by Francesco Pesole note the Dollar’s rally is driven by hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and stronger US inflation, pushing DXY back to April 2025 levels. They stress this is a rates-driven move, with real front-end differentials supporting Dollar momentum. The team continues to see upside risks in coming days, with PPI flagged as a potential catalyst for another USD leg higher.

Rates-driven move underpins Dollar strength

"The combination of hawkish Fedspeak and a US CPI beat earlier this week continues to pay dividends for the dollar. DXY is now back at Liberation Day (April 2025) levels, with real front-end rate differentials continuing to fuel strong dollar momentum. Importantly, this remains a rates-driven move, with contained excessive USD strength relative to short-term fair value currently built in."

"We continue to see upside risks for the dollar in the coming days. The Fed's Chris Waller has put a 50bp December move on the radar, and that should keep markets biased towards hawkish interpretations of incoming data. December pricing remains at 28bp, leaving scope for further adjustment."

"Today’s home sales data are unlikely to matter, but tomorrow’s PPI will. That may be the catalyst for another USD leg higher."