Is Bitcoin in a Bear Market? Willy Woo’s Answer Hinges on One Test

Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment has slipped into fear, yet on-chain analyst Willy Woo argues the mood says little about a Bitcoin bear market. In his view, fear without fresh price lows has historically shown up inside bull markets, not at their end. That reading cuts against the crowd. Many traders have turned defensive after a shaky few weeks, while Woo sees the same fear as a buying window rather than a warning. Why Woo Rejects the Bitcoin Bear Market Call Woo shared a Glassnode chart of the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index, a gauge that scores market mood from 0 for extreme fear to 100 for extreme greed. The reading has dropped from greed into fear territory over recent weeks. Crypto Fear and Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me The analyst called fear during an early bull market a gift. In a follow-up post, he added a historical test. In case you're wondering if we are in a bear marketWe've NEVER seen fear in a bear market unless new lows are being made.We are far from making new lows. Willy Woo (@willywoo) November 12, 2026 Woo argues that a true Bitcoin bear market has only produced fear while the price was printing new lows. Bitcoin, he says, is far from that point today. If that pattern holds, the current dip looks more like a pullback inside an uptrend. It would also fit cycle data on price recovery, which points to 2028 as the likely peak. Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Sentiment Data Still Gives Traders Reasons for Caution However, not every signal backs the bullish read. Santiment data shows bearish comments now outnumber bullish ones for Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and XRP (XRP). Fear has also spread beyond crypto. Wall Streets fear gauge spiked after a sharp Nasdaq selloff, leaving stock traders more nervous than crypto investors. Moreover, Woos framework rests on one condition. If Bitcoin breaks to new lows while fear lingers, his own test would point to a Bitcoin bear market instead. The analyst has made contrarian calls like this before. He also flagged a six-year search low in Google interest as a buy signal, and the coming weeks will show whether fear marks another one. Read the article at BeInCrypto