Institutional baseline forecast: US dollar supported until next spring, followed by a mild recovery of the euro

Bitget

News

智通财经2026/11/11 10:07

Show original

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold. Trade now!

A welcome pack worth 6200 USDT for new users! Sign up now!

ING’s baseline forecast assumes the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance in the first quarter of next year, as the US economy shows robust growth and inflation remains above 3%, prompting money markets to keep pricing in the threat of a prolonged tightening cycle.
This situation is expected to shift in the second quarter, as the energy-driven base effect fades from overall inflation, and inflation returning to the Fed’s 2% target will drive US short-term rates significantly lower.
This timing also coincides with developments in Europe, where French budget politics are expected to keep the euro at a risk premium ahead of the April elections.
As a result, the institution expects the euro to remain under pressure against the US dollar in the 1.10–1.15 range over the next four to five months.
However, starting from the second quarter, a softening in US rates, easing energy prices, and greater clarity in French politics could support a moderate recovery in the euro against the dollar, aiming for 1.18 by the end of 2027.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

Understand the market, then trade.

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold.

Trade now！

Institutional baseline forecast: US dollar supported until next spring, followed by a mild recovery of the euro

You may also like

Crypto prices