Anthropic IPO Pricing Set: Goldman Sachs Predicts Revenue to Exceed $685 Billion by 2030, Seven Founders to Cash Out $1.75 Billion in IPO

Anthropic is knocking on the door of the capital markets with the most ambitious IPO ever, and its lead underwriter Goldman Sachs has provided the strongest endorsement for this event with its forecast model.

On November 10, according to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the matter, Goldman Sachs' research team predicts that Anthropic's revenue will reach about $685 billion by 2030, a more than 130-fold increase from the company's $4.6 billion in 2025.

Meanwhile, as Wallstreet Insights mentioned, Anthropic has already begun its IPO roadshow, seeking to raise funds at a fully diluted valuation of approximately $1.4 trillion, with plans to price the IPO on Wednesday, November 18, and begin trading the next day.

The underwriting banks began holding meetings with potential investors on Tuesday morning to promote this IPO, which is aiming to raise as much as $90.4 billion (including a $26 billion private placement). The company’s seven co-founders will collectively cash out $1.75 billion during this offering, each selling approximately $250 million worth of shares, representing about 1.5% of their holdings respectively.

This growth forecast reflects the market's strong optimism on the economic potential of AI technology, but it also presents a core dilemma for investors: Do current AI valuations reflect a reliable growth trajectory, or is this excessive hype around an unproven investment theme?

According to Bloomberg, the Goldman Sachs research team disclosed a detailed revenue forecast path in an oral briefing to potential investors: Anthropic’s total revenue this year is expected to be about $52 billion, rising to $136 billion in 2027, reaching $442 billion in 2029, and surpassing $685 billion in 2030.

In terms of revenue structure, Goldman expects enterprise customer revenue to account for the vast majority in 2030, at $586 billion, with non-enterprise revenue around $100 billion.

It is noteworthy that this forecast also highlights Anthropic's short-term financial pressure. Goldman estimates that due to high capital expenditures, the company will only achieve positive annual free cash flow in 2030, with free cash flow of $33.6 billion at that time.

Prior to this, the company is expected to post a free cash outflow of $12.8 billion in Q4 2026 and further increase to $65.7 billion in 2027.

On the cost side, Goldman expects Anthropic’s compute infrastructure expenditure to climb to nearly $400 billion by the end of the decade, more than 10 times its current level. Meanwhile, compute-side profit is projected to increase by a similar margin. Filing documents show that Anthropic has already committed about $900 billion for compute procurement over the next few years.

Anthropic is still a loss-making company in a period of rapid expansion.

According to the Financial Times, the company’s operating loss in 2025 will be $8.1 billion, narrowing to $1.3 billion in the first nine months of this year. Since 2023, the company has never achieved operating profitability.

Excluding stock compensation and non-cash charitable donations, Anthropic’s adjusted operating profit for the first nine months of this year was $4.1 billion.

Goldman’s forecast model shows the company’s operating loss will peak at $40.4 billion in 2027, then gradually narrow and turn positive at the operating level in 2029, with operating profit reaching $65.2 billion in 2030.

In its prospectus update published on Tuesday, Anthropic disclosed that its annualized revenue run rate (ARR) hit $8.1 billion in October, up $1 billion over the previous month.

Analysts believe that the core logic behind this forecast is the potential of AI tools to replace a wide range of professional activities. From the widespread adoption of Claude Code among software developers to the possible future coverage of new drug research, automated handling of complex legal and accounting rules, and even automation in manufacturing, supporters believe this is just the beginning.

However, market divergence remains. Investors are weighing whether these forecasts represent trustworthy growth from a technology that will reshape the economy and society or are simply excessive optimism for an investment theme whose sustainability is yet to be proven.

Goldman's model was communicated to potential investors in the form of an “oral briefing” rather than a publicly released written report, a detail that also reflects the current uncertainty in the AI forecasting system.

The seven co-founders of Anthropic will collectively cash out $1.75 billion in this IPO. Based on the midpoint of the IPO price range, each founder will sell about $250 million worth of shares. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, each will have a net worth of around $1.8 billion after the IPO.

The seven co-founders are Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, Tom Brown, Jack Clark, Jared Kaplan, Sam McCandliss, and Christopher Olah.

Large-scale founder cash-outs during IPOs are often seen as a bearish signal by the market. However, Jay R. Ritter, retired professor at the University of Florida Warrington College of Business, thinks this particular cash-out is unlikely to deter potential investors. He states:

The market is increasingly comfortable with founders and major shareholders partially cashing out during IPOs. In dollar terms, this sale is definitely on the large side, but it’s by no means unprecedented.

He cites Google’s 2004 IPO, at which time Larry Page, Sergey Brin, and then-CEO Eric Schmidt cashed out about $41 million and $31 million, respectively.

Ritter further points out that this cash-out represents only about 1.5% of each founder’s total shareholdings, and Dario Amodei and Daniela Amodei’s cash compensation last year was only around $650,000 each, so most of their wealth remains tied up in equity. He says:

Some individuals sit on vast paper wealth but have very little cash, so moderate cash-outs are not something the market is overly concerned about.

According to Anthropic’s prospectus, Dario Amodei and Daniela Amodei both participated in tender offer buybacks in June 2025 and April 2026, respectively.